Owais Mughal
Last month there have been several news items about the Lahore Rapid Mass Transit (LRMT) Rail project. We have tried to gather key information from many of these news items and will present it in the following as one concise post on the topic.
The proposed rail service is the main part of the Lahore Mass Transit System (LRMTS). Other components of this project include the now under construction Lahore Ring Road Project.
The Photo above shows the Route Map of LRMT Phase I – Green Line
The LRMT is a Two-phase, 97 kilometes long project. A Hong Kong based company called MVA Asia Consultancy was hired the government of Punjab as consultants to prepare the project feasibility. The study of MVA Asia Consultancy completed 5% of project design and proposed four Rail lines in the city to share the traffic burden. The proposed capacity of LRMT is going to be able to move 35000 passengers per hour in the city. Funding for the project will be provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
PHASE I:
In Phase-I two tracks will be constructed. One will be a North-South route called the Green Line and other will be a East-West route called the Orange Line.
Green Line:
Green Line is going to cost US $2.4 billion to construct.
The Green Line would extend from Shahdara to Hamza Town via Ravi Road, Lower Mall, Mall Road, Fatima Jinnah Road, Qartaba Chowk and Ferozepur Road areas.
The Photo above shows the Route Map of LRMT Phase I – Green Line
The length of Green Line is going to be 27 km. 11.6 km long Green Line route would be underground, while 15.4 km long would be overhead.
There will be 12 underground and 10 overhead stations built on the Green Line route.
The completion dates of ‘Green Line’ is in 2011. Initially the project was supposed to finish in 2012 but due to Cricket World Cup od 2012 wher Lahore will be hosting few matches, the Green Line completion date has been pulled in to 2011. Initial estimates are that 227,000 people annually would benefit from the Green line.
In March 2007, Punjab Government invited Dr E. Sreedharan who is the managing director of successfully operating Delhi Metro Rail. After studying the project details Dr Sreedharan has declared Green Line Project as a viable one. He has inspected the first priority line’s route from Shahdara to Hamza Town. In his view, the implementation of the Green Line project (Phase I) would face no major technical difficulty because the soil condition en route was good and roads were wide, having room for underground construction without creating any serious inconvenience to the city.
Orange Line:
Orange Line is going to cost US $1.9 billion.
Its route would extend from Pakistan Mint to Sabzazar via Shahnur, Awan Town, Hinjarwal, Niaz Beg, Canal View, Wahdat Road, Ali Town, Salahuddin Road, Bund Road, Islam Park, Dera Gujjran Depot, Mahmood Booti, Salamatpura, Samanabad, Gulshan Ravi, Chauburji, Lake Road, Lakshami Chowk, Railway Station, Sultanpura, UET, Baghbanpura and Shalimar Garden areas.
The length of Orange Line would also be 27-km out of which, 6.9 km long tracks would be underground, while 20.2 km-long would be overhead upon which six underground and 20 overhead stations would be established.
The central interchange station of Green and Orange lines would also be established besides linking these lines at Ring Road, railway station, airport, and Sports City.
The completion dates of ‘Orange Line’ is in 2015. Initial estimates are that 245,000 people annually would benefit from the Orange Train.
PHASE II:
The completion year for phase II is 2020.
In Phase-II, two more tracks will be laid out. These routes will be called Blue Line and Purple Line.
Blue Line:
The route length of blue line is going to be 24 km. The ‘Blue Line’ will start from Chauburji and end at College Road, sources said, adding that from Chauburji the line would pass through Mozang Chungi, Shadman Chowk, Jail Road, Mian Boulevard Gulberg, Mian Boulevard Garden Town, Faisal Town and end at College Road.
Purple Line:
The route length of Purple line is going to be 19 km. Purple line would start from Bhaati Chowk and end at Allama Iqbal International Airport. The line would pass through Bhaati Chowk, Brandreth Road, Railway Station, Allama Iqbal Road, Dharampura, Ghazi Road and end at Allama Iqbal International Airport
The Train Capacity:
One unit of air-conditioned train will have the seating capacity of 500 passengers.
Stations:
Train stations on the elevated route would be designed like overhead bridges while train stations on the underground route would have two entranceways and two exits.
Environmental Concerns?
Just like with every Mega project, voices of dissent have started appearing for the project where people have shown concern for environment and noise levels of elevated trains. Dawn‘s editorial on Jult 12, 2007 covers these voices very concisely and I’ll quite the editorial here:
The first two lines will cost $3.3 billion. In real terms, the cost of the project is yet to be worked out. Surely, notes of dissent are expected to start pouring in. The economists are going to question the heavy debt the project will incur for the government and the citizens, while the opposition politicians are most definitely going to give their own colour to these lines and the sabza group may soon be out to enumerate the effects of this development on Lahore’s environment. Some of these points may be very valid and should elicit a thoughtful response from the government. There can be no moving ahead without this exercise. The sooner this essential exercise is carried out the better it would be for everyone.
Noise: I couldn’t find the details on expected noise levels around elevated portions of the track but noise is definitely going to travel far and away if sound barriers are not constructed around the tracks. More than normal decibels of noise are already witnessed around Pakistan Railway’s elevated track which runs from Lahore Station to Badami Bagh.
Previous Light Rail Studies or Projects:
The current project is definitely not the first attempt to build a rail based mass transit for Lahore. In 1991 during Nawaz Sharif’s termas prime minister, the feasibility of a light rail transit system was determined by Japanese development organisation (JICA). It had proposed a 13 kilometre long system. The study was reviewed and updated as part of the World Bank funded “Lahore traffic and transport studies” in 1993.
The system’s cost was estimated at about US $400 million, but with better network coverage. In 1995 Japan proposed financing the original scheme with grants and loans of about US $495 million, but the project could not be implemented due to many reasons.
Fares: Back in July 2007, it was reported in Daily Times that Passengers of the Lahore Rapid Mass Transit (LRMT) would be charged Rs 125 to Rs 140 to travel from one end to the other of the 27 kilometre-long Green Line.
“Sources associated with the project told Daily Times on Thursday that this (Rs 125-Rs 140) one-side fare had been calculated after taking into account the rendered $2.5 billion cost of the project, which is expected to be completed by 2011. Sources said that to pay back the loan likely to be incurred on the LRMT project, the government would have to charge high fares from the passengers. Currently, the public transport fare from Kahna to Shahdara is between Rs 20 to 25. By 2011, it would rise between Rs 25 and Rs 30. They said that to charge a passenger of the LRMT Rs 30 for a one-side visit, the government would have to give a subsidy of at least Rs 100 per person, which was not possible for the government.
While Rs 140 one way fare indeed looks ridiculous right now, passengers may end up paying much more than road transport. The benefiit however will be ease of travel, no traffic jams and hopefully a strict adherence to time table.
Hope: Many years ago I took a course in Engineering Economics. I still remember one sentence from my text book. It read as:
“All mega projects should be built as soon as possible after their design is done and funding is secured otherwise opposition to the project grows on POLITICAL basis.”
When we look around the mega projects of Pakistan, it appears so true. If big projecs are not started quickly they never will because somebody will always find a reason to do politics on the issue. In the end we sincerely hope the project sees the light of the day and does not end like the one in works for Karachi (called KMTP/KCR) for the past 33 years. Lets all hope for the best and we will continue to add updates on this project in the comments section below.
References
(1) Metroblogging Lahore
(2) Dawn Editorial of July 12, 2007 here.
(3) The News, February 26, 2006 here.
(4) MVA Consultancy
(5) Business Recorder Edition of June 10, 2007
(6) The Daily Times Edition of March 14, 2006
(7) ZeeNews edition of March 5, 2007
(8) Lahore Signs Light Rail MoU: September 1, 2002.
(9) Daily Times Edition of July 7, 2007
Elevated Expressway to Make Lahore Rapid Mass Transit Project Obsolete
NESPAK official says project execution would require international firm with good track record
* TEPA official says LRMT of greater social utility
* Steering committee chairman says available funding will be considered
By Mansab Dogar
LAHORE: The Punjab government
Thankyou very much Mr. Shafiq. I appreciate your words and understanding towards my die hard feeling for Lahore Mass Transit Project. Ya I wish it may materilaize but everytime when its about to inaugurate this project something really bad happend. I dont know is it really because of the bad luck of all the Paksitani People.
Dear asim,
your work on lahore mass transit system is appriciable and i hope this project must be completed. i think the govt of punjab must complete this project but Govt stop all those project related to previous govt but i think previous govt project which is in good for people must be implemented. My request to hounourable chief miniter shahbaz shrif to do this project because its improve the lahoris life and may be lahore equivalent to London.
My pray to Allah that this project must be completed and implemented.
Hamid shafiq
FAISALABAD (October 06 2008): Asian Development Bank has asked the Government to complete Public-Private Partnership (PPP) transaction for Private Sector Concession by October 2009, while ADB multi-tranche financing facility loan will be approved for public sector investment by December 2008 for Lahore Rapid Mass Transit System Project.
According to official sources, the Government understands that developing the Lahore RMTS with a PPP would provide an opportunity to improve the overall efficiency of the system. A PPP provides the Government with an opportunity to efficiently allocate risks between the Government and specialised private firms.
This means that risks will be controlled and influenced by the party that is best placed to control and influence these risks.
A PPP, however, would not make sense for the Government or private sector if either party were bearing risks that are better handled by the other. This means that a well-structured PPP is essential to achieve the objectives expected from a PPP.
ADB experts citing examples of key issues that need to be resolved as part of structuring a PPP transaction, include the following:
(i) Public versus private funding. The passenger fares that the Government plans to charge for the green line will not cover the full cost of building, operating, and maintaining the line. The Government will need to subsidise a portion of the capital costs. What portion would be funded by the Government, where would these funds come from, and how would these funds be paid are key issues to be resolved.
(ii) Ridership risk. While the Government should bear part of the ridership risk, the private operator should also have incentives to maximise ridership. Thus the private operator should bear a portion of the ridership risk. What portion and under what terms are key issues to be resolved.
Prior to consideration of ADB project financing, ADB should update project reports mentioned. Engagement of a transaction advisor is required to formulate financial structuring, undertake detailed due diligence, and package the Lahore RMTS to attract private capital and management.
The transaction advisor, in close consultation with ADB and the Government, will help prepare and launch a PPP transaction for the green line. ADB is willing, in principle, to partly finance the public-sector-financed portion of the Project under the multi-tranche financing facility modality.
ADB experts disclosed that the transaction advisory work will be carried out in three phases: preparation, implementation, and negotiation. During the preparation phase, the transaction advisor will carry out technical and legal due diligence, design the detailed structure and terms of the transaction, market the transaction with potential investors, and develop prequalification and bidding documents as well as the necessary contracts.
During implementation, the transaction advisor will assist the Government in obtaining any approvals and permits required, pre-qualifying potential investors, carrying out the bidding process, evaluating proposals, awarding the contract, and holding negotiations with lenders. During the negotiation, the transaction advisor will support the Government and winning bidder reach financial closure.
PHASE I, TRANSACTION PREPARATION:
The transaction preparatory work will include technical, legal, regulatory, financial, and safeguards due diligence in support of the proposed transaction. The transaction advisor will lead efforts to market the transaction, including tasks such as (i) preparation of initial marketing document, an information memorandum, and presentations; (ii) preparation of a list of investors that have the qualifications and experience to be the project counterpart; and (iii) consultations with potential investors and lenders to share information about the Lahore RMTS. The transaction advisor will also advise on progress made in preparing the transaction; and review feedback on the design of the transaction. International road shows may be required.
Phase II, Transaction Implementation
The transaction advisor will assist the Government in obtaining or issuing the necessary permits or approvals needed for implementing the transaction for the Project. These might include approval to (i) create and fund a subsidy account, (ii) issue a government guarantee, and (iii) launch prequalification and bidding process. The transaction advisor will assist the Government in (i) issuing the request for prequalification, responding to questions from interested parties, evaluating the expressions of interest, and selecting a short list of firms; (ii) issuing the request for proposals and responding to questions from bidders; and (iii) assessing the legal compliance of the proposals, evaluating the quality of the technical proposals and competitiveness of the financial proposals, and making an award decision.
PHASE III, NEGOTIATIONS:
Following the award of the contract to a bidder, financial closure for the transaction will require several months. During this period, the transaction advisor will assist the prospective lenders of the winning bidder in carrying out their credit analysis and, to the extent needed, assist the Government in negotiating with these lenders.
It may be recalled that the investment cost of the TA project, to finance the recruitment of transaction advisor, is estimated at $7.5 million equivalent, including foreign exchange costs of $6.0 million and local currency costs of $1.5 million equivalent. The TA will improve the urban rapid mass transportation network in Lahore. The outcome of the TA is a structured design for the Lahore RMTS Project feasible for ADB financing.
I think our Chief Minister is adamant and he will going to built his dream express way project on Ferozpur road and if its going to happen than definitely we cannot see Lahore Mass Transit Project. OOOOOOO indeed aweful.