Adil Najam
Our second blog poll seems to have thrown up some interesting, but also confusing, results.
Depending on how you cut the pie, you can make the argument that:
(a) a clear majority of ATP readers want Gen. Musharraf to give up both or one of his twin offices (Army Chief and President) before the 2007 elections,
and at the same time
(b) a clear (but differently configured) majority wants him to play some role - although a more constrained role - in Pakistan’s politics.
(Click image for larger picture)
A total of 114 ATP visitors cast their votes in the poll which was launched very early on Friday and closed very late on Monday. While this is obviously NOT a scientific survey, the results are rather intriguing, even if not representative.
The ATP Poll gave readers five options in response to the question:
The option that got the most votes (41 votes; 36%) calls on Gen. Musharraf to retire at the end of 2006 and fully hand over both offices to his successors. While this was not an absolute majority, it is well over a third of all the votes cast in the poll. By comparison, only 19 of the 114 respondents (16.7%) preferred the option of Gen. Musharraf continuing in both offices simultaneously.
Just over a quarter of the ATP respondents (30 votes; 26.3%) want Gen. Musharraf to continue in only one of the two offices. There seems relatively little enthusiasm for passing the decision on whetehr he shoudl keep both offices or not to the next Assembly (15 votes, 13.2%) or of holding a national referendum (9 votes, 7.9%).
Of course, this is simply a ‘pulse of the blog’ poll and is NOT a scientific or representative survey. However, the results are interesting nonetheless; at least to the extent that they say something about the cohort that is likely to visit a blog such as ATP and vote in such a poll (i.e., educated, mobile, technically savvy, and globally connected Pakistanis).
While one must caution against over-analyzing these results, at least three points are worth noting; if only to nudge a discussion:
- Given that the technocratic classes tend to support (and be highly represented in) military governments in Pakistan including this one, it is noteworthy that ATP’s (technocratic?) readership chose the ‘retirement option’ (36%) for Gen. Musharraf as often as it did.
- There seems to be a sense that Gen. Musharraf should NOT continue with twin-offices into the future. Only one-sixth of the respondents (16.7%) chose this option. While those who opted for a referendum option or having the next Assembly decide (total 21.2%) may be seen as sitting on the fence on this question, those calling for his retiring from at least one office (and possibly both) were in a clear majority (total 62.3%).
- Not withstanding the above, and in fairness, it should also be noted that a majority of the respondents do, in fact, see (want?) some continued role for Gen. Musharraf — if not in both offices, then in at least one. This finding does not contradict the earlier finding; it only adds nuance (and possibly confusion).
So, where does all of this leave us? Maybe I was onto something when I had responded to a questioner in Washington DC by suggesting that public opinion amongst Pakistanis remains divided and uncertain on the future of Gen. Musharraf.
Maybe what these numbers suggest is that those responding to our poll see a continued role for Gen. Musharraf in Pakistan politics; but they would like to see him having less of a role than he has had in the past (also see earlier ATP post on democracy in Pakistan).
What do you think?
We have heard the same promises for the last 4-5 decades,the promise of development and poverty reduction . These people that are now rallying behind the CJP have all during their time in power have ridiculed the judiciary . Mr sharif replace all Supreme court judjes with his choice of judges. Miss bhutoo called the judiciary a circus of monekeys or some thing like that . CJP for them is their ticket to elections . FDI is pouring in Pakistan and these people want to be in a position of power to get their fair share of the ‘pie’
Mr sharif in 1996 or 1997 froze all bank accouns and removed his families cash outside pakistan. The motor way landed Pakistan in a dept far higher than what it should have been .
Are we to think that these ex leaders have somehow turned a new leaf , and given up wrong doings . They are itching to return so as to be able to loot Pakistan on a larger scale .
every body talks aobut the democaracy , democracy .?
wt is democracy ? anyone wana tel me ? nobody cant describe it. bcz democracy means the lively lif of country peoples..
evry rights of peoples and power in country people. and ys bt we says democracy means the civil government .. then which govt made a strenthy Pakistan .?
whihc govt stabilize a national finance?
which govt?
Benazir. or Nawaz or any one..
thy just ful their pockets and gone away .. and nothing .
ys in BHTOO ERA .. PPP HAVE an strength in blood of pakistani.. but now it has been changed by the Benazir policies.. and nothing so musharaf suld be cary on this..
and ys pakistani did remarkable progress in 7 years …
but ys govt is not in the people ,, i agree its coming slowly and very slowly ,, and inshllah wilbe come
i hope tis year nationl assmly wil again selct the musharf as a uniform and it wil be gud 4 us .. even circumstances can be rude ….
and i m not seeing anyone replace to musharaf .. if someone is best to musharaf then i wnat to know the answer …. tat who is he or she? and how?
Musharaf is doing well, bt his sme steps are nt in a gud way . i dont know why he takes these steps,, but i think under the critical situations or someone…. bt whn we talk about the cjp…. we say he’s not good.. he wants to secure his future.. or anyone..
i think he’s a president and he cant take another wrong stps bfore analysing the problem .. so we shan’t be talk bfore coming the decision … of supreme court..
and absolutely no body doubt on RANA BHAGWAN DAS.
evry adovcate and politician, mEDIA and even horoscope masters says tat RANA BHAGWAN DAS. didnt compromise on any situation and he wil be not … we should have the faith on sprme court. and ys why cjp dosnt tel us about the refrnce details bcz he know tat somthing is right in this case or something wrong .. otherwise in the MUSHARAF period pakistan did progress not as our wishes but did it .. and we shuld give the chance to him.. oof course our country people , and politician cant undrstand anything except of LATHI.. SO HE SHOULD be cary on.. bt i agree he has removal some facts of ISLAM .. and on tis issue many points can be rise… tel me again ..
WHO SHULD BE NEXT PRESIDNET AND P.M. aftr thm .?
WHO have an a gud role in the progress of PAKISTAN..?
WHO . BENAZIR? NAWAZ? MULVI? ALTAF HUSSAIN OR IMRAN?
if we look our pakistani history before coming the musharaf .. wt we find out.. ????/
can somebody give me answer?
we were on the edge on the hell.. according to me ?
and now it doesnt matter tat election should be cleanly held out…or not .. ?
but tel me who can compete the musharaf..? ?
ANY BODY have a good past? who is ? tel me the one name of any politician? but u cant be find out??//
so i think musharaf shuld be cary on…..this job..?
in the upcoming 5 years… wil see it? but i think now its no time …for choosing any one rather to musharaf.. ??
if we talk about the domestic terrarisom in pakistan then let`s i give u time for thinking and imagine.. even in pakistan a army ruler working.. then its a situation whn any civil currupt govt wil come then wt wil be happnd?
plz give me the answers……..i want to know …the answers. think about it and understand.
He should go to Thailand and have a vacation and let others have a vacation too
I think Musharaf is yet another failed leader of pakistan. He has not only spend his 7 years making sure he is not sacked but also he has distroyed the remaining so called institutions in Pakistan. When I compare his performance so far, I could count handful of things he has done right… but I have a mountain in front of me of things that he has done wrong.
I would support Musharraf under all circumstances…. with Uniform. Our corrupt Politicians who we have witnessed over the years need a strict stick to keep them disciplined.
The great fuss & problem with our politicians is that they see Pakistan’s Economic situation improving and Foreign Investment coming… and they are unable to make billions from it.
Musharraf is trying to make PAK; into a moderate un-violent country. Economic growth, Education & Religous tolerance is being preached.
I have seen many Developed countries of the world; and Pakistan’s progress is really impressive out on streets and in Facts & Figures!
We need to flush out our Corrupt Politicians who have only plundered PAK before 1999.
Remember, a Dictator’s goverance which has put PAK on a road of Success is better than that Democracy that takes us backward into ignorance!
Someitimes in order to do 80% RIGHT we have to do 20% Wrong!!!
In Musharraf’s tenure; from 1999 to 2006, Foreign Debt has REDUCED to $ 36.5 billion. It means total reduction of $2.4 billion in 7 years.
In 1999 what we earned as GDP: we used to give away 64.1 % as foreign debt and liabilities. Now in Musharraf’s tenure 2006, what we earn as GDP: we give ONLY 28.3 % as foreign debt and liabilities. Now we are SAVING 35 % of Our GDP for economic growth.
According to Economic Survey 2005. Poverty in Pakistan in 2001 was 34.46%. And, now after 7 years of Musharraf; Poverty in 2005 was 23.9%. Poverty DECREASED by 10.56%. Overall, 12 million people have been pushed out of Poverty in 2001 -2005!
GDP growth in 1999 was 3.9%. And, now GDP growth in 2006 is around 7%.
Literacy rate in Pakistan has increased from 45% (in 2002) to 53% (in 2005).
Pakistan was on the verge of bankruptcy in 1999, with around $1bn in foreign exchange reserves and its stock market teetering at 1,000 points. The forex reserves now stand at more than $13.25bn and Stocks soaring above 10,000.