According to a recent Yahoo news update:
The government (of Pakistan) agreed to impose Islamic law and suspend a military offensive across much of northwest Pakistan on Monday in concessions aimed at pacifying the Taliban insurgency spreading from the border region to the country’s interior.
In my opinion, the devil is really in the details and the implementation of this agreement. I have mixed feeling on this: It is hard to see how the situation in Swat can be controlled only through the military means; there has to be a political dimension. This is what the U.S. is also learning the hard way in Afghanistan where there is already a talk of having some sort of adjustment with “moderate Afghan Taliban”.
In an ideal world, you would have hoped that Pakistan army would have gained the upper hand in Swat and then they could have negotiated from the position of strength. Unfortunately this is not the case. Despite several attempts, the army could not make any significant gains in Swat. Part of this is due to bad strategy and partly due the nature of guerrilla-warfare. Pakistan army was never trained to fight a counter-insurgency; fighting against India is what the focus has been so it does’t come as a surprise that it didn’t perform very well.
As far as their strategy goes, it was based primarily on using gunships and (artillery) shelling against suspected militant hide-outs. This approach is not very conducive to counter-insurgency because it leads to a lot of collateral damage. As the U.S. experience in Iraq shows, your mission in such a situation must really be to “secure the population”. This was the fundamental change in strategy that U.S. Gen. David Petraeus made but such a change requires putting a lot of boots on the ground, taking a lot more causalities and better intelligence. Unfortunately the Pak army was unwilling and incapable to take this approach which resulted in the bloody Swat stalemate.
Against this backdrop, the agreement can offer a way out if government can play its cards correctly. It should also be noted that this is not the first time that Swat will be under the so-called Shari’s law. This was the case for decades when Swat/Dir region was part of the princely state and life was governed by “Customary law”. The elected representatives of the Swat region have also been in favor of incorporating some populist militant demands such as Qazi courts and quick and simply justice with a 6 months deadline to process all cases.
One can hope that by incorporating the populist demands and a willingness to understand and work with local sensitivities, the authorities can gain credibility with the local population and take some of the wind out of the insurgency’s sails. I am under no illusion that the likes of Molana Fazlullah will be willing to give up their weapons and stop fighting but hopefully such a agreement will isolate the hard core extremist elements from the deeply conservative local population and deprive them from one of their main arguments. It is a lot easier to deal with insurgents when they don’t enjoy widespread local support.
Why do these politicians shout all the time about Constitution, judiciary, law and democracy when they have bowed their heads to bearded gunmen in Swat and established a Mullah Raj ?
Then again I always considered Pakistani politicians, media and “civil society” to be a bunch of loud-mouths with no real commitment and backbone.
My only hope is that the Taliban cannot live with violence and hence this peace agreement will also collapse like all the other agreements conducted with these bearded gunmen groups.
In the meantime, the army really needs to sit down, strategize and prepare for the next phase of hostilities. A very important question for army leadership will be why they succeeded in Bajaur and failed in Swat?
I can understand ATP’s desire to give give voice to all different voices, but I am disappointed in this post and that ATP would carry such pro-Taliban views. Specially, after this site has so fearlessly been speaking out against the bigotry of these murderers.
I agree with the main view flashing at the top of the page. PAKISTAN IS AT WAR. And this deal is surrender!
I think this is a sad day. The Taliban thugs have used terror and fear by hanging people on trees and digging people out of graves and cuttings the ears of barbers. If this is their Sharia then I want no part of it. This is a sad day for Pakistan and a sad day for Islam.
so if one can terrorize the local population effectively by beheading & butchering, they can impose what ever form of draconian thuggery !!
that is the message coming out of Swat & i wish it upon on every one North of Hyderabad, then we will see how every one is going to love the Shariah especially Geo & Aaj Tv!!
this is absurd & unbelievable, succumbing to Terror & appeasing these Barbaric thugs is not the way to go, what kind of Shariat will be imposed ? ,the one which denies the women education & basic human rights & considers Shias as heretics, are u guys kidding your selves ??
the Pakistani media is cheer leading this thuggery, & it is shameful, if pseudo journalists like Hamid Mir & Mushtaq Minhas are so adamant about imposing the draconian shariah on every one they should be the first ones to be held accountable, by making them grow beards.
Pakistan is spiraling into mid-evil barbarism, shame on every one who supports it from the comforts of western enclaves!!
Shame on ANP & Zardari & the Corrupt Pakistani Media!!