Adil Najam
Our ATP Poll on ‘What events from 2008 will define Pakistan in 2009?’ continues. However, as promised, we bring you a second companion ATP Poll which asks a related but different question: What do you think might be the big news coming out of Pakistan in 2009? (You can mark multiple choices).
If you have not voted on our original Year in Review Poll yet, please do vote here.
This is a blog poll – and its should be taken no more seriously than that. Our purpose is to facilitate discussion and reflection; there is very little about it that is scientific. We have come up with a list of 15 possible news stories that could become big in 2009. Some of these, if they were to transpire, would be desirable developments; some clearly not. These may not be the most ‘likely’ stories of 2009. They are merely our list of some interesting possibilities in multiple domains. The list is, by definition, subjective. One hopes it is also reflective and will lead to reflection by our readers. We have no doubt that there will be other stories that could and will become big in 2009. Fell welcome to discuss those in the comments section.
Our ATP Poll list of 15, in no particular order, includes the following:
- Stock markets in Pakistan, as measured by the Karachi Stock Exchange Index (KSE), have been in a deep and unending slump. Could the Pakistan stock markets make a big rebound in 2009 back to the dizzying heights it reached in early 2008?
- The names of a number of Pakistanis have been mentioned in recent years for the Nobel Peace Prize (including Abdul Sattar Edhi, Aitizaz Ahsan, Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Asma Jehangir). Might a Pakistani Civil Society leader will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009?
- There is a virtual civil war going on in and around Swat in Pakistan’s Norther regions where the so-called ‘Taliban’ insurgents have taken over Pakistani territory and are killing Pakistani citizens and solders. Will the Pakistani forces succeed in suppressing this insurgency in 2009?
- Gen. Pervez Musharraf has been remarkably quiet since he resigned as President. The rumor-mill in Islamabad suggests that he may contemplate a return to Pakistani politics. Could this happen?
- The tension between the ruling PPP and tthe PML(N) government in the Punjab continues to make headlines. Could the PMN(N) government in the Punjab fall in 2009?
- The MQM-PPP coalition in Sindh seems to make die-hard supporters of both parties uncomfortable. Would this arrangement collapse in 2009 and, if so, with what repercussions?
- Could this be the year when a major new political party with mass support will emerge in Pakistan, possibly out of the recent civil society uprisings and media awareness?
- Talk of another martial law (or equivalent) waiting around the corner is forever current in Pakistan. Could this happen in 2009?
- Asif Ali Zardari’s PPP government at the Center seems very strong right now, with or without the coalition with PML(N). Will it remain strong in 2009, or could the government fall?
- Right now there is much (too much) talk of escalating military and political tensions between India and Pakistan. Could this turn into an all-out war between India and Pakistan in 2009?
- The continuing drone attacks by the US on Pakistani territory remain a major sore point between the two countries and a source of angst amongst ordinary Pakistanis. With a new US President ready to take office, might 2009 see an end of US drone attacks on Pakistani territory?
- The scandal concerning Justice Dogar’s daughter continues to make waves. Will Justice Dogar be able to continue as Chief Justice through 2009?
- The Justice Movement built around Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry continues, even if with less steam. Could 2009 see Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry reinstated (again)?
- Pakistan cricket has been in the doldrums for way too long now. Could 2009 be the year of the comeback for Pakistan cricket?
- The energy crisis has been deepening in Pakistan. But so has the realization that something has to be done about it. Could 2009 be the year that sees the end of load-shedding in Pakistan?
In the absence of any visionary and pro-active political leadership in the nation, Pakistan will continue to be heavily influence by external factors and events. The change in Washington and potential change in Delhi in 2009 will likely have a far greater impact on Pakistan than anything Pakistani leaders say or do.
I am hopeful that people of Pakistan, especially the entrepreneurial and the professional classes, will continue to do their best to help extend the positive legacies of Musharraf-Aziz years. Without going into the specific accomplishments in Pakistan during Musharraf-Aziz regime, I believe it can be safely said that the communications revolution (accompanied by dramatic growth in vociferous electronic and new media) as well as a significant enlargement of the middle class in Pakistan helped sow the seeds of the end of arbitrary actions by President Musharraf. In other words, Musharraf pulled a Gorbachev ( a la perestroika that unleashed uncontrolled energies) by enabling powerful resistance to arbitrary rule. Some of these changes are durable and I hope will make our rulers more accountable. There will still be abuse of power but the sunlight will shine brightly on it to the detriment of the abusers. Eventually there will be real participatory democracy to serve the common Pakistani with appropriate checks and balance imposed by a much larger and more powerful and aware middle class essential for true democratic governance in Pakistan.
Another Elections :D
A major twist , change and major review in Internal & Foriegn Policy is required, with positive approach of implementation.
We need to strive and bank on our own natural reserves more.
Access to Free education, free health , provision of basic amneties a must.
Very interesting poll indeed
But I look at the current results on this and the current results on your other poll and see a disturbing trend. The things that people think are most important in the first poll (extremism, talibanization and drone attacks from US) are also some of the things that people think are least likely to change from this poll!
probably this is true, but it is sad.
@Nihari
“the more things change