Sindh and Baluchistan coast are facing a Cyclone threat.
This is projected to be a big one. It has already qualified to have a name of its own. It is called ‘Phet‘. Phet is a Thai language words which means ‘diamond’. At the time of writing of these lines Phet is 900km South of Karachi and it has wind speeds of up to 120 knots at its center.
Computer Models show that it will first go north-west towards Oman and after making land fall there it is likely to turn right (east) towards Sindh-Balochistan coast and the Indian state of Gujrat. Atleast in some models the city of Karachi appears to be on direct path of Phet. It is estimated that in next 24 hous, Phet will become a Category-5 hurricane with speeds of upto 156 mph (253 kmph) – imagine this!
However the hope is that after making landfall in sparsely populated area of Oman, Phet will lose strength and when it makes landfall in either Pakistan or India, it will be a weaker storm.
While Sindh and Balochistan coast do get occasional cyclones hits (also see here), Karachi has so far been spared of this natural calamity. Atleast as far as living memory of current generation goes there have been no direct cyclone hits to Karachi. While all areas of Pakistan are as important as others, I am mentioning Karachi because it is the city with the highest population density and lacks any meaningful evacuation plans for a city this large.
The occasional monsoon rains cause havoc in Karachi almost every year, therefore a cyclone grade heavy rain is expected to cause wide-scale flooding and hardships. I doubt that any kind of preparation by the local government will be able to drain water quicker because all major water draining arteries like Gujjar Nala, nehr-e-khayyam, Manzoor Colony Nala, Tipu Sultan nala etc have either been encroached upon or need serious dredging. River Lyari has been channeled thanks to Lyari Expressway therefore it is expected to hold well. However if the cyclone causes high tide – which it most likely will, it is going to make Arabian Sea swell and move inland into Malir River, Gizri channel, Hub River and Lyari River deltas and won’t let the city drain its rain water into sea fast enough.
While meterological details of this event are pouring in from every news channel, we want to extend our prayers for everyone’s safety. Reports form Pakistani press suggest that Government has imposed section 144 in coastal areas and is working on people’s evacuation. Hopefully the country which is already battered by all kinds of man-made calamities, may not have to bear the burnt of this natural disaster.
Impact on Hub Dam: It is expected that the rains in catchment area of Hub Dam are likely to fill up the reservoir. The dam supplies drinking water to Western districts of Karachi and Balochistan and is currently down to only 2 months worth of water supply. Reportedly, people have been offering namaz-e-istasqa (prayers for rains) at The Hub Dam.
Recent History of Cyclones in Pakistan:
(1) June 26, 2007 – Yemyin: The last major cyclone to hit Pakistan was on June 26, 2007 when Cyclone Yemyin hit Balochistan coast. It caused 21 deaths and ledft 250000 people homeless. (Readers might remember ATP had sent relief funds to the Cyclone victims).
(2) May 20, 1999: This cyclone hit Keti Bandar and Shah Bandar areas of Sindh and caused 235 deaths. The number of displaced people exceeded 10,000.
We will continue to update this post as Phet moves towards land.
Photo Credits: accuweather.com.
So, if the cyclone was to be Allah’s azab, I guess Allah is very happy with Muslims killing Muslims in Pakistan since the cyclone did not cause that much damage!
Dear All,
All thanks to Allah the almighty, the storm did not hit karachi. Had it hit us, with the current scenario of administrative / emergency services of the city, the results would have been much devastating.
Karachites only dealt with the outer rim of the storm which brought city wide rains breaking all records and wreaked havoc to low lying areas. No lights, plenty of rain and electrocution brought the city down to its knees during early hours of sunday. It was by midday the emergency management took charge to clear most of the main arteries of the city for the traffic.
As always media helped panic the disaster stricken people of the city. Air, Rail and Road traffic suspended for several hours. People had no clue what to do, the well to dos stocked up their homes and waited for the storm to pass. As expected electricity went with the first shower and wasnt availale to most parts of the city for the next 18 hours.
We need a proper crisis management and city awareness programs through electronic media.
@kamal: Amazing Jahalat actually exhibited by you here without knowing the idea that how Books like Bible and Quran clearly mentioned how God punished the people by sending storms and all that. Ever heard of Noah,Aad and Thamood?
Offcourse every work by Allah follows some pattern; be it sun rise or a storm. It might not be a punishment but concluding it would NOT be sort of punishment is kind of ignorance
Yes, it has to do with Allah – things happen by His Will and this was not an attack by humans.
Pakistan’s collective “Kartoots” as a nation (read government) are bearing fruit.
If you don’t believe in Allah, then at least accept it could be Karma!
I raised the point that it is time to repeal the bigoted laws against Ahmadis. Regrettably, not many are talking about these laws even after the terrorist attacks, inspired, I believe, from the national attitude against them.
I was fearing earthquakes as well, but the 5.3 one that happened yesterday isn’t the one(s) I was thinking of.
Let’s make things right. Yes we can try.
The media seems more interested in sensationalising the weather than in helping people learn how to cope with it