General Musharraf prepared well-chalked out plan to sustain himself in power which is moving smoothly towards its successful eventuality. Chief Justice reinstated on the 20th of July and two other potential threats to his authority - Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif - formed ARD to dislodge him from his office. It was a precarious situation for him where he was caught in a no man’s land. Things were looking rosy for democratic powers in the country. Lawyers’ movement showed that it would be hunky-dory for Pakistan if that mood persists for any length of time. But as always, establishment came up with the plan that so far has solved most of the problems of Mr. President.
In my opinion, there are two acts of this drama. It all started when General went to Abu Dhabi suddenly and the nation heard that Pakistan Peoples Party’s Chairperson was having a dialogue with the insignia of military rule in Pakistan just to bargain few personal interests and some power sharing formula. It shell-shocked Pakistani people. Benazir Bhutto persistently said that this dialogue would not affect her overall standing in political arena but independent polls indicate that her popularity is coming down as rapidly as prices are going up in Pakistan. She was so excited about the whole deal package that she made herself isolated. Mian Nawaz Sharif publicly said that it was the breach of ARD to enter into any kind of dialogue with Army ruler and then he decided to form APDM with support of MMA and other smaller parties. But Benazir carried her march towards the attractive deal. She pinned all her hopes with the deal and few days back she came up empty-handed after proclaiming that PML-Q sabotaged her progress towards a deal which could have changed Pakistan’s future. And now after proving herself as the part of Musharraf’s boat she has created a situation for herself where majority of Pakistanis think PPP as pro-Musharraf than anti-Musharraf. This sentiment tarnished Benazir Bhutto to an extent that she may not get an overwhelming majority to form a government without coalition. So first part of the plan was to welcome Benazir in a dialogue and then leave her at the juncture where her popularity crashed and she remains helpless without much support of PML-Q to form any kind of government or sit in opposition. Plan-A accomplished successfully!
Now let us move towards second plan. When Mian Saheb shook hands with Benazir Bhutto to topple Musharraf government, he became another potential threat. Musharraf brought MMA his old allies into the play to strengthen his stay in power to execute his plan-B which he prepared for Nawaz Sharif. MMA and other smaller parties told Sharif family that you become a non-entity in ARD in presence of Benazir Bhutto and you are still a power in Pakistan politics to tackle Musharraf challenge alone right at the time when Musharraf opened a dialogue with Benazir in Abu Dhabi. They also assured him that petition against his exile in Supreme Court would be enough to get him back to his motherland. Timing was perfect. Mian Saheb felt cheated. Prevailing mood of SC and assurances of several parties made him over-confident to confront army ruler from the platform of APDM and he filed a petition against his exile. As expected, SC ordered in his favor. He was then left with no option except getting back to Pakistan. He booked a flight, tied his seat belt and landed at Islamabad Airport with the convoy.
Government already brought Saudi Arabia to help itself. Mian Saheb was exiled again with strict orders of not releasing any political statements against any political issues of Pakistan. So Nawaz Sharif episode is over now at least for three years.
Now General Musharraf is back on his foot. He has no one to challenge his stay in the power except MMA (secretively), MQM, and PML-Q (openly) and all of them are on his own side.
In midst of all of this, one real hope is Supreme Court which is also under immense pressure after few horrible incidents in Karachi court and with lawyers all over the country.
Photo Credits: Photos for this post are taken from the daily Dawn.
It is with great sadness that we announce the demise of the supreme judiciary of Pakistan at about 3:30 PM local time on 9/28/2007.
Inna lillahi va inna ilayhi raji’Un
She finally succumbed in her battle against political expediency - after valiant attempts by the lawyers movement, to save her life, ended in failure. It will be recalled that her earlier resuscitation from deep coma on 7/20/2007 had given rise to euphoric optimism throughout the country.
Marhuma had a long and undistinguished career spanning 60 years. Her most notable accomplishment during this period was her role in the revival and ingenious use of the “doctrine of necessity”, starting in 1954.
Marhuma leaves behind two estranged sons, the hopes and dreams of the civil society of Pakistan, and the jihadi extremist movement of Pakistan.
Marhuma will be laid to rest, in a simple ceremony, tomorrow (9/29/2007) at the grounds of the Election Commission of Pakistan.
The Qul ceremony for the departed soul will be held in the Parliament on 10/6/2007.
Long time ago when there was protest about slavery from the clergy in America, they devised a way to pacify the protest. They devised a scheme to ask all the big intellectual guns of the time to justify slavery. They came with the conclusion that to be human you have to have feelings and since slaves have no human feelings they can be kept slaves.
A similar argument has persisted in Pakistan for 60 years that to govern you have to wear Khaki. Pakistan was free for about a year and then the Khaki philosophy took over. Actually this army is the battalions raised in 1857 to undo the Sepoy Mutiny (read the history of Baloch Regiment). After Pakistan they continued their British tradition of Governing. Instead of Governor General or Voiceroy they took the titles of Field Marshal and COAS but never became a peoples army. Any talk of this theme was brutally supressed. And the intellectuals took an easy path……they became intellectual prostitutes and enjoyed the financial benefits. They lauded an army man as savior who had violated his own oath. Why should there be any further discussion before trying and hanging this man for violating the Law. It is our intellectual bankruptcy that we ignore the basic laws and keep clamouring for Democracy. Are we less than human that an army man should be allowed to steer our destiny with no questions asked? Why should a poor man serve time for petty theft while we spare a man who stole a country? There can be no compromise on principles.
You brake the law….you get the gallows even if you are in Khaki……when we follow that Mantra we will start breathing as free men. Otherwise Bhule Sahh says: Bhule naloon chula changa jedey utay taun charey.
This analysis is a classic example of how revisionist history is written and how it always finds its supporters. You start with the known end-result and then reconstruct past events around unknowables and conspiracy theories to get to a known beginning. Read backwards, it smells like pure genius when it’s nothing of the sort. It’s like when people say that 9/11 was deliberately brought about so that the US can go into Iraq. The middle makes no sense but no one can deny the beginning and the ending.
As Atif suggested, the piece works as satire but not as analysis and I don’t know whether the author’s tongue was touching his cheek or his palate when he wrote this.
Inshallah Musharraf will be re-elected President and the coalition government will continue. They have been through some very tough times, but have held together and mostly persevered.
The opposition is divided and devoid of credibility, yesterday’s crooks now disguised as democrats. If Musharraf is careful, he can handle the opposition.
Well Viqar, all I can say is that we will have our finger crossed. In any case, the choice of a better strategy aside, the first thing is whether the opposition can unite on a single course of action.
Aqil,
I realize that this is a slippery slope. But it is also very apparent to me that whenever the set up changes, some fairly massive civil action will have to be part of the story any way.
My principal concern with not resigning is that the possibility of any further legal action will be pre-empted if the MNAs stay in the parliament and vote for Justice Wajih. The govt will contend, with some justification, that it is a case of sour grapes; that the opposition contested the election and, when they lost, they are now refusing its results.
I am not a legal expert of course, but it seems to me that if the civil movement, through Justice Wajih, calls into question the eligibility of the general at the time of scrutinizing of papers (9/29 I believe) then, even if the EC denies their appeal, they may have recourse to further appeal in the SC after 10/6.
It is true, as you point out, that there is risk involved in this, particularly if any part of the opposition - say PPPP or JUI-F - does not resign. Perhaps the opposition should do the necessary leg work this time and make sure all their bases are covered on this one.
If the entire opposition quits then there is a good possibility that people will back their protest, and this may be enough to make a difference.
Perhaps the SC will find its spine one more time. Who knows …
Viqar:
The option of resigning and boycotting the election will work only if it is backed by massive street protests that paralyze the government.
I think the opposition can try street protests (assuming that it has the capability of mobilizing enough supporters) while simultaneously getting its MNAs and MPAs to vote in favour of a concensus candidate. However, if it boycotts the election, then it will be putting all eggs in a single basket (the ability to paralize the govt through protests), the failure of which will allow Musharraf to easily sail through. Since the opposition’s recent performance in mobilizing the masses has not been very inspiring, that won’t be a wise thing to do.
Aqil,
I am torn on this one. I hear you but, after taking everything into consideration, resigning and boycotting the election seems to me to be the best option. If they tried to vote for Justice Wajih, it is probable that they will fall short of electing him anyway. And the more they legitimize the process by participating in it, the more Musharraf and his cronies are going to crow that it was a genuine democratic elctoral execise. For sure, he will project this impression, for all it is worth, to the outside world.
Let us face it; he is bent upon winning and probably has the means to do so by hook or by crook. He has not toiled this far just to be shown the door by a more principled dilli wala.
Same goes for his deal with PPPP which, I believe, is already in place. The rest of the tamAsha is just a nATak being played out to pull wool over everyone’s eyes.
Whatever minimal hope still lingers on, lies in denying any moral legitimacy to this sham, and in keeping the door open for continuing the fight in courts. In the end, it may still not be good enough, but there is no shame in going down valiantly; we saw that earlier today in another arena.