Adil Najam and Owais Mughal
(Also see our second Year in Review Poll on “Predictions for 2009.” Image from Flickr by Mirjee.)
We had ended the year 2007 at ATP by calling it the “Year of Angst and Anger.” We had begun the year 2008 with a wishlist of seven prayers: Prayers for Human Dignity, for Living Livelihoods and Wellbeing, for Peace, for Tolerance, for Justice, for Democracy and for Jurat-i-Tehkik.
The year 2008 has been as angry and as angst-ridden as its predecesssor. Our prayers for 2009 remain the same, even more so. There is little one can add there.
Since past is prologue to the present, we wish to look beyond both past and present, into the future. Just as the demons of 2007 continued to haunt us in 2008, the events of 2008 will define Pakistan’s 2009 - for good or for bad. But which of the many - too many - momentous events of 2008 will have the greatest impact on defining what happens in Pakistan in 2009? That is the question for this ATP Poll, the first of two New Year’s Polls (the second one will follow soon).
We have selected ten key events of 2008 for you to choose from. But since some are related and the list is long, you can vote for multiple choices (we would recommend and suggest that you vote for around three only). The choices include:
- The political rise of Asif Ali Zardari at the helm of the PPP and as President.
- The resignation of Gen. Pervez Musharraf as President and his departure from the political scene.
- Pakistan’s lingering judicial crisis and its impacts on the judiciary as an institution.
- Rising political and military tensions with India following the Mumbai blasts.
- The international impacts of the global financial and economic crisis.
- Pakistan’s own economic, energy and food crises (in addition or separately from to the global economic crisis).
- Continuing acts of terrorism, civil violence and militancy all over Pakistan.
- Military action in Pakistan’s Northern areas by the government of Pakistan.
- The rise of Talibanization, extremism and deep social divisions in society.
- Barack Obama’s victory as US President and the likely changes it will bring to US policy on Pakistan, including on the global war on terror (GWOT).
Through your vote in this ATP Poll and through your comments, do plesae help us understand the implications of what has happened this year, and chart the contours of that which might happen next year.
(Also see our second Year in Review Poll on “Predictions for 2009“. Image from Flickr by Mirjee.)
Most of the points in the list are pretty relevant, though I think the election of Obama and the global financial crisis are less so.
The impact of the gglobal financial crisis on Pakistan’s economy is not entirely negative. Where it may hurt us is a possible decline in our exports to American and european markets. But on the other side, the crash in the international oil prices has given Pakistan a substantial relief and the way stocks all over the world have fallen means that some investors who might otherwise have taken their money out of Pakistan to other markets probably won’t do so now.
I think in light of the fall in the international oil prices, we could have kept the IMF away for a while longer.
Hardworking, honest and decent Pakistanis will have the greatest impact on Pakistan.
At independence, there was a match factory and a few cotton ginning factories that formed the back bone of Pakistan’s industrial might. The GOP was functioning literally under a tin roof with pencils for pens. The initial salaries was paid by a handful of few generous men. There were no tax revenues. The rented car Jinnah rode to take the oath of office caught fire on the way back due to lack of maintenance. Worse, Jinnah’s last ride, an ambulance, also broke down in middle of no where. You could not be more poor or helpless.
GOI had cut off electric power, refused to share monies, rolling stock, and did not even bother to setup border posts for the border because everyone believed that Pakistan will collapse in no time.
Even most Muslims of India did not believe Pakistan will be around after 90 days. They stayed put and in some cases, kept monies and properties in India.
Look around you now. The hard working Pakistanis; Muslims, Christians, Hindus, Sikhs, etal have made not only a Pakistani homeland but also country where succession of robbers continue steal the hard working people and make a good living. I cannot help but say that an average Pakistani is more prosperous that their counterpart in South Asia. It is nothing to be proud about because it is pittance. And that is a sorry state of SA. A sorry state of Pakistani state but not of Pakistani people or people of the region. Pakistan and SA could have done more.
And just because we, the purists, lament that Pakistan’s glass is half full, does not mean that we jump to the wrong conclusion that the half is actually urine.
The majority of Pakistanis are honest, hardworking and people. They continue to work hard, pay their fair share and try to do the best under the most trying of circumstances. Pakistan has more than enough good people to make positive contribution to the nations of the world for peace and prosperity. The justice movement (which you forgot to list as an item) is a reflection of decency of the people yearning for dignity of law and order and equity and justice.
And these circumstances are not theirs of making. The victims are being called bad people. That too is OK; things are always not fair.
Good people will always and continue to be good people no matter what other people say. You cannot hide good works, nor the decency of the Pakistani people.
You folks at Pakistaniat are doing a good job in giving Pakistaniat a dialogue. Best stick to your poetry and dramas and travels and other anthropological issues. That is where you guys are better. Best stay away from the rest of it. You add too much drama with your loft statements, especially when you also have to be politically correct. It is a hard act. But much is at stake and you need to ask yourself, are you helping Pakistaniat or generating blog hits and page view revenues?
Keep the good work of Pakistaniat going!
And yes, the decent, noble, hard working, honest majority of the people of Pakistan will have the greatest impact on Pakistan.
May God bless the decent and hardworking people all over the world. It is through their own goodness that they will also see the good people of the region and come to their aid and help solve their problems in peaceful ways with equity and justice.
May God bless the decent, honest and hardworking Afghanis, Pakistanis, Indians, Nepalese, Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans.
Pakistan Zindabad
Pakistan Paindabad
If there was ever any doubt what the real continuing story will be, look at the breaking news today of the suicide attack in Swat at a polling booth:
SWAT: The death toll in the Shalbandai suicide attack during the by-election polling being held at a Shalbandai school located in Boner area here mounted to over 30, including the children and police personnel.
Sources said that in a by-election being held on Sunday a suicide bomber blew himself up at a polling station located in a school at a place called Shalbandai in Boner area, which initially killed 10 persons, while the death toll continued rising after retrieval of bodies from the debris and thus far the total has mounted to 33 dead.
Secretary Election Commission said that polling has been suspended in the wake of suicide attack and the staff has been called back as a precautionary step.
Hospital sources told that over 30 bodies were brought to the Dagar Hospital, while the injured have also been shifted to the hospital for medical aid. Relief and rescue operation still continued, while the officials fear death toll rising after completion of the work of clearing the debris.
Prime Minister, Yusuf Raza Gilani, President Asif Ali Zardari and the interior minister, while strongly condemning the dastardly attack, expressed their deep sympathies on the precious loss of lives.
My own sense is that Zardari will not last the year.
The terrorism and extremism and Talibanism will. And that will continue to be the country’s biggest challenge of all.
This is a comprehensive list of factors that directly or indirectly will affect Pakistan in 2009. It is difficult to assess the quantum of their impact. Besides these I think apparent political and government inaction (or lack of it) to tackle these issues will greatly affect the next year for Pakistan.
May I recommend a correction in the list; it is not ‘Northern Areas’ where there is military action. It is ongoing in our tribal areas and Swat [NW and N of NWFP]. Northern areas are mainly Gilgit Hunza etc. [The Northern Areas of Pakistan, defined in general terms, cover the districts of Gilgit, Diamer, Ghizer, Ghanche and Skardu - from WWF website.]
Very interesting that no one thinks that the global financial crisis will have much of an impact. I guess this shows how cut off from the world economy we have become.
I think the relationship with the US will change dramatically in 2009
Once again US has shown that it cannot be trusted
I think that clearly Pakistan’s 2009 will be defined by the rise of extremism in general and of terrorism in particular. There is little that either Zardari or Obama will be able to do about it.
The economic, energy and food issues you mention will hurt the poor Pakistani but in general the real challenge in 2009 will again be about extremism and terrorism.