Adil Najam
The summit meeting tomorrow between US President Obama, Pakistan President Zardari and Afghanistan President Karzai could clearly be amongst the most important events on what is being called the Af-Pak front, and possibly in defining the future of the so-called ‘War on Terror.’
I believe that this could not just be an important step forward; it could be a good step forward. It is traversity of basic logic for for so long these three countries – USA, Pakistan, Afghanistan – have supposedly been ‘allies’ in a critical war supposedly against the same enemy (terrorism), and yet there has been no real forum of strategy and policy coordination between them. Indeed, it is a measure of the absurdity of this trilateral relationship that this will really be the first ever strategic meeting between the three countries at the summit level (Presidents Bush, Musharraf and Karzai had met, but never really to discuss policy coordination and joint strategy).
It may be asking for too much, but one does hope that this will indeed be a real policy coordination and strategy development discussion and not just finger-pointing and scolding on the part of Presidents Obama and damage deflection and passing the blame on the part of Presidents Zardari and Karzai. The stakes for all three are high – indeed, the stakes are high for the whole world.
U.S. policy in the region – including its ill-guided drone attacks into Pakistan – has clearly been a failure
that has not achieved any of the stated US strategic goals. And the last thing President Obama wants to be doing is to be seen to be continuing the Bush legacy in the region. He needs to show to his own people, but also to Pakistan and Afghanistan that his policy is different from George Bush’s and also that it will work. For its part, Pakistan stands at the brink of disaster with its internal politics in disarray, its military’s morale and repute in question, and growing infuence of the Taliban in society. Mr. Zardari will need to demonstrate to his US hosts as well as his own public that he remains in control of Pakistan and in a position of actually doing something about the imminent threats to Pakistan. Hamid Karzai’s standing is no better.The charge against him is that he is merely the “mayor of Kabul,” but some suggest that he may not even have that much control, and whatever control he has may also slip away in the forthcoming elections.
All three have their work cut out for them. In very different ways the pressure will be on all three. In the case of Mr. Zardari and Mr. Karzai, even their jobs may be on the line. That is not so for Mr. Obama, but the stakes for him are also very high. One hopes that their discussion will go beyond diplomatic niceities but also not degenerate into recriminations and accusations. One hopes that it will be frank and forthright, with all three being willing to say and hear some tough love. But most of all one hopes that they will roll up their sleeves and focus not as much on who has not done what (none of the three parties has done much to be very proud of in this region) but on what needs to be done. The tragedy of this trio is not just that all three countries – USA, Pakistan, Afghanistan – have failed to do the right thing, it is that none of the three have any idea about what the right thing to do is. Neither does anyone else. This is why it is so very important for the three leaders to begin devising a real joint strategy whose purpose is not merely to control the impulses of the other in a climate of mutual distrust, but to tackle the common and growing threat of extremism, militancy and terrorism.
If Obama wanted this to work he would be at a Round Table with the warlords of Afghanistan, and the feudals and the Army of Pakistan – the folks who can actually make things happen. No matter – he’ll be doing this the next time around. The high-sounding “resolutions” will fall apart before Karzai and TenPercent leave Washington.
Very nice picture of Bush turning into Obama.. funny
But I really think there is a world of difference between the two even on their Paksitan policy. I take Obama over Bush any day.
Eidee Man, I think your comment is very insulting to Afghanistan. Frankly, given Pakistan’s own situation we are not in much of a position to insult anyone… even Somalia and Afghanistan look more stable than our Taliban-infested country.
I think there is a great need for coordiantion between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Because many of our problems are around teh shared borders. The first step is to stop with the arrogance of looking down on others. Specially now we can really not afford to do so.
The notion that Pakistan and Afghanistan are similar countries requiring a single strategy is utterly ridiculous and insulting to Pakistan. I would go as far as to say that by calling Afghanistan a country is to demean states like Somalia and Sierra Leone.
I do not see anything coming out of this meeting; it is going to be purely symbolic. It reminds me of the press-briefing Bush, Musharraf, and Karzai had in the White House lawn; what a pathetic scene that was, with Musharraf not even looking at Karzai.
Zardari is having enough trouble trying to maintain the support of his own party workers, the people are certainly not behind him, regardless of whether they support the PPP.
And Karzai’s tenure would be a grand 8 year long joke, if the situation facing Afghanistan’s people were not so dire. Until recently, he had maintained his standing in the international community by blaming Pakistan for all of Afghanistan’s problems; however this strategy has not worked so well for him of late.
So tomorrow’s meeting is just going to be a charade from the perspective of all parties. The Americans are going to gain nothing, because even if they have the support of Zardari and Karzai, it means nothing because neither person has any semblance of power. And Pakistan’s not going to be able to convince Obama of re-evaluating their strategies, the drone attacks, for example. We can hope that Haqqani and the other staff are able to get some points across.
I hope you are right and this actually does become a summit to develop a joint strategy. I do not think that will happen. What you will get instead is the US scolding Pakistan and refusing to accept all its own mistakes, including the continuing mistake of the drones.