It is impossible to effectively address Pakistan’s myriad problems so long as security conditions continue to deteriorate. We are unable to control our own territory as armed militias and criminal gangs run amok in our cities, towns and villages.
Sectarian violence is growing unabated. Business is fearful and the economy in tatters. Many of those with resources are making plans to migrate. Meanwhile, terrorist organisations freely launch attacks at home and abroad, with the government unable to provide security even in the capital.
Since we have sunk to this point mostly during Gen Musharraf’s nine years in power, it is time to re-examine the fundamental security strategy of Pakistan.
For decades the army has functioned under the increasingly questionable assumption that the greatest threat the country faces is a military confrontation with India. The armed services have accordingly consumed great proportions of Pakistan’s tight budget ($4.4bn for fiscal year 2008-2009, a seven per cent increase over the previous year) in preparation and readiness for a conventional war that they cannot win. As part of the same strategic objective, in the hopes of keeping large numbers of Indian troops (close to 700,000 at last count) occupied in Indian-held Kashmir, the army allegedly trained fundamentalist militant groups and encouraged them to wage attacks there.
At the same time, it is alleged that our military and intelligence establishment trained and supported the Taliban in Afghanistan with the purpose of having a friendly government on the western border over which Pakistan could exercise its influence (all part of the dubious policy of ‘strategic depth’ in case of a war with India). Of course, the predictable blowback from these operations has resulted in the current state of near-complete lawlessness in large parts of the country, as well as every province being awash in weapons.
Have any strategic goals been reached? No. Is the Kashmir problem any closer to a solution? No. Do we have a friendly government on our western border? No. What we have achieved is an insecure and crumbling state that could well become a pariah in the international community.
We have already demonstrated we possess a credible nuclear deterrent and must realise that we hurt only ourselves by imagining India as an enemy hell-bent on our destruction. India is a fast-growing economic giant, focused on lifting itself out of poverty. It has little to gain from any attempts to capture Pakistani territory and everything to gain by having a stable and prosperous neighbour as a trading partner. The Kashmir issue can and should be resolved through diplomatic pressure and international support.
In any case, we must ask ourselves whether the well-being of 170 million Pakistanis can be forever held hostage to the fate and future of the Muslim community in Indian-held Kashmir, especially after more than 60 years of support has not improved the situation for them one jot, but has led to disastrous results for us.
The present danger to Pakistan comes from the lawlessness and terrorism in the country and the government’s inability to effectively project authority and guarantee the safety of its citizens. Jihadist organisations with foreign funding appear to have joined hands with the Taliban and their sympathisers to wreak havoc in the country with their ultimate retrograde dream of creating a mediaeval society where a draconian interpretation of the Sharia is enforced, women kept as chattel and modernity and progress defeated.
Some of these groups are determined to attack and intimidate, if not eliminate, religious minorities. Then, we have the heavily armed militias affiliated with political parties. Finally, there are the criminal gangs involved in drug trafficking, kidnapping, carjacking, extortion, armed robbery and murder.
The idea that the army can somehow defend the country against this lawlessness is ludicrous. How can the armoured corps help fight sectarian car-bombings in Karachi? How will yet another squadron of F-16 aircraft defeat the drug smugglers in Lahore? How does the infantry do the detective work necessary to bring kidnappers and carjackers to justice? How can the army deal with the creators of mayhem that are thoroughly dispersed within our population, in every town and every city? It cannot. Yet the armed forces consume a hugely disproportionate share of Pakistan’s federal budget.
So, here is my suggestion: reduce the size of the Pakistan armed forces by a third, and use the money saved to dramatically increase the police budget. Currently defence spending is 20 per cent of the federal budget, while slightly over one per cent is spent on policing. This move will allow at least a six- to seven-fold increase in the police budget. Give our brave police the salary, equipment, training and manpower they need to bring law and order back to our cities and towns. They are the ones paying the highest price in terms of lives, and they are the only ones with a chance of controlling the proliferation of weapons and our epidemic of crime and terrorism.
Explain the decision candidly to our neighbours, refuse to be drawn into a no-first-strike nuclear policy and make a security pact with the United States to deter any hostile actions by India. It is in both those nations’ interest that Pakistan be stable and well-policed. This will also have the salutary effect of significantly reducing corruption in the country, and will result in an atmosphere of security and justice in which healthcare and education can be delivered effectively, and business can start dealing with the challenges of the 21st century economy.
Syed Abbas Raza, editor of 3QuarksDaily (3QD), wrote this piece for Dawn.
@Aamir Ali,
In today’s era of unconventional warfare, a country does not need huge army. Drones, satellites and anti missle systems can be enough to give you great advantage over your enemy. That said, with all the WMD Pakistan possess, it is nearly impossible for any country to attack Pakistan unless they are as fanatic as Talibans are. Pakistan army has done a good job in Swat but they have lost key battles againt India. That should tell you something. I am not saying that we depend on a third country to defend us but we also don’t need to spend all that money for a piece of land that has brought nothing butbloodshed to this country. There are times when a person has to amptate a limb to live that is what Pakistan needs to do. Let go off Kashmir and relations with India will be much better. Thats my 2 cents. I know it is a hard pill to swallow but again, Pakistan NEEDS to cut down on military spending and divert those funds to improve infastructure so it can develop into a great nation that it was intended for.
Oh yeah, they also need to separate mosque and state but that is a different topic for a different day.
@MQ says:
“This argument that the army is only viable and trained institution in the country is fallacious. If you spend as much money on any institution as you do on the army — be it on education, health, justice system, law enforcing, anything — you will produce an equally viable and effective institution. It is the question of money and your priorities.”
Really ?
We spend millions of Rs on Senators, MNA, Justices, Education…I did not see any results.
Lets not take our anger at Army..
As I said earlier, it is IG Police, who need to make his case in front of Parliament and donor agencies.
Lets leave Army alone.
Syed Abbas Raza,
Your are correct in stating that we need to train Police but we don’t need to reduce Army. Why mess with institute which is working well ?
Like any leader, it is IG Police responsibly to do a thorough study, recommend course of action and seek funding from Pakistan Govt and donor agencies.
I wrote to my Alumni that we don’t have to re-invent everything. Here are few thoughts:
1. We need various level of Police and Intel services.
One model can be US..US Marshalls, DEA, FBI and Sheriff
2. Seek training from Interpol and US, Scotland yard etc.
3. IG Police should at once meet with former NY, Los Angelos Chief of Police , William Bratton. He was man behind to reduce crimes considerably in NY and LA.
Now he is working for Altegrity- a firm who advises countries like Pakistan on modernizing their police force.
http://tinyurl.com/kp9bpj
http://www.altegrity.com/About-Altegrity.aspx
If the military takes 20%, that leaves 80% of the budget left to everything else. That is plenty of money in a third-world country like Pakistan, which is spent effectively can considerably improve education, health AND police. Don’t condemn Pakistan Army because its organized and spends whatever cash it has efficiently.
Don’t forget that alongwith the budget the Americans are dumping 5 times more money left and right these days in Pakistan then in the Musharraf era. Not only the Americans but the Europeans are also giving aid to Pakistan, and Chinese/Saudi assistance is also there, the same if not larger than Musharraf’s time.
Despite 80% of the budget and billions in aid/assistance from abroad some folks want to take a knife to Pakistan Army due to anti-army phobia, while dreaming up fantasies of US defending Pakistan and Indians loving Pakistan. Sounds about as viable to me as the whole “Nizam-e-Adl” fiasco in Swat.
Pakistan has 700,000 active men and women protecting its borders. Compare that to India who employs 1.4 million actives so does the United States. Although Pakistan’s actives are half the size of US or India, it is protecting many times smaller land with several times smaller GDP. This does not mean monetarily, their budget is less than India’s or US. This means that Pakistan is spending more % of their GDP on army than its general public.
We know the problem. Everyone agrees that our military is too big and we need to reduce it but who is going to do it? If an elected government tries to cut army’s budget, there will be a coup. It is more like live and let live situation between Pakistan’s elected official and its army.
We first need to have solid government and a separation between army and the government. Our army does not need to interfere in our internal matters. On the other hand, we also need to involve India and come to a general consensus that India will not attack Pakistan. As a matter of fact, India does not want to attack Pakistan. They are building their army to fight China incase they have to. They do not fear Pakistan. They don’t need to. It is very well documented that India will win a conventional war between India and Pakistan.
My solution is to give Kashmir to India, get an agreement that it will not stop water supply to Pakistan nor will it attach Pakistan. Get US involved to put pressure on India incase they attack us. Now reduce the size of the army and improve the infrastructure. These are long term but simple steps that will help build our economy.
I know my comments will draw negative attention but hey, India is economically way ahead of Pakistan and no one can deny that. The question is, where do you want Pakistan to be? If India is the US of North America, Pakistan can either be Mexico or Canada. I rather Pakistan be Canada than Mexico. After all, which Pakistani would like to go and pick fruits at Indian farms or work as maids in Indian households or mow their lawns?