Adil Najam
At one level the results of our ATP Poll on Grading Pakistan’s leadership and power centers are not surprising at all. However, when we compare the result of this ATP Poll to related ATP Polls held in June 2009 and September 2009, then there is a rather interesting trend that seems to be apparent in the responses from our readers.
In the overall results, counting the grades given by more than 850 readers for each ofteh six categories, President Asif Ali Zardari was given an average grade of D+ (GPA=1.38 on a 4 point scale), Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani gets a grade of C (GPA=1.96), Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry gets a grade of C+ (GPA=2.21), Chief of Army Staff Gen. Pervez Ashfaq Kiyani also gets a grade of C+ (2.28), Leader of the Opposition Nawaz Sharif gets a grade of D (GPA=1.00) and the Pakistan Media was given a grade of C- (GPA=1.64). As before, we used the standard 4-point scale to convert the votes into a letter grade (A=4.0, B=3.0, C=2.0, D=1.0, F=0.0).
Not unexpectedly, it is the votes at the extremes that defined the results. Strong supporters, and often even stronger opponents, voted at the extremes. Nearly a quarter of all votes cast (some 1,300 combined votes out of the combined 5,221 votes cast in the six categories) gave a grade of “F” (Failing). Extreme grading indeed; and not different from the last time we held this Poll. The most F’s were given to President Zardari (45%), with Nawaz Sharif trailing closely with 37% F’s, Prime Minister Gillani getting 20% F’s, the media getting 18% F’s, Gen. Kiyani 17% F’s, and the Chief Justice getting 12% F’s. This meant that getting a decent grade was statistically impossible for anyone, even though the A’s were also quite generous for many of them: Gen. Kiyani got 26% A’s, the Chief Justice got 19% A’s, President Zardari and Prime Minister Gillani both got 18% A’s, the Media got 7% A’s and the least A’s went to Nawaz Sharif for whom only 3% of the votes were A’s.
But none of this is that surprising, or even that interesting. What is interesting and surprising is the comparison to our previous ATP Poll. Although these are not scientific polls and they are certainly not reflective of what “Pakistan thinks” they are certainly representative of what ATP readers think, and since that readership has not changed by much between last year and now, one assumes that at least in this cohort of Pakistanis there are some interesting trends that can be deciphered:
- The only leaders whose average grade has improved since June 2009 are President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani. President Zardari moved up from a grade of D (GPA=0.97) to D+ (GPA=1.38) in this period, an impressive GPA jump of +0.41. Prime Minister Gillani moved up from a grade of C- (GPA=1.67) to C (GPA=1.96), with a GPA jump of +0.29. One assumes that the recent passage of the 18th amendment has something to do with this.
- The deepest decline in grade – by a full grade point – was seen by Opposition Leader Nawaz Sharif, who moved from a grade of C (GPA=1.91) in June 2009 down to a grade of D (GPA=1.00) in April 2010. His also now has the distinction of having the lowest grade in the pack.
- The only person whose grade remained the same in both periods was Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. Although he remains at a C+, there is a GPA decline of -0.15 from 2.36 to 2.21 which implies that there is a decline, although not enough to change his grade.
- The Army Chief also saw a decline in his grade from a B- in June 2009 to a C+ now. This implies a GPA decline of -0.40 from 2.68 to 2.28. One assumes that the current military operations may have something to do with this.
- Even the Media has seen a decline in its grade. Back in September 2009 the Media had scored a C grade with a GPA of 2.06, now it scored a C- with a GPA of 1.64; a GPA decline of -0.42.
As always, one should caution that we cannot make any more of this than we should. It is, after all, a blog poll and reflects the opinions of a particular type of Pakistanis. But it does suggest that the opinion of this type of Pakistani may be shifting just that slightly; at least for the moment.
Pakistan second most hated nation on earth? BBC World Service Poll
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/160410b bcwspoll.pdf
i was double-minded about whether i should post any views on this thread. my comments on the earlier thread about the poll itself, where i voted against the cjp, general kiyani, and the sharifs, apparently didn’t go down too well with some readers in this forum. normally i would write off such displeasure to other people having an opinion completely different from my own (which is, of course, their right) and not have a second thought about it. however, when i – a staunch opponent of bhuttos, pppp, not to speak of zardari, was kindly insinuated as having my head up zardari’s rear-end, i could not so easily dismiss it. in my own naive mind, disliking a person (or persons) is entirely a different matter from giving (or denying) them credit for something good that they do. this is why, in spite of my intense dislike for zab, i have always considered his execution wrong and deliberate murder. this same, unfortunately, was my consideration again in crediting the pppp govt. and for my views about sharifs, the cjp, and mr. kiyani.
for the admirers of the cjp – whom i also supported at one point – and general kiyani, i have a request to view the presentation by najam sethi on his show with muneeb farooq on duniya tv on monday, april 19/2010, so they can have a better glimpse of the character of those sitting on the seat of supreme justice in pakistan. and please – this has nothing to do with what opinion i have of malik abdul qayyum or anyone else. no one, regardless of their shortcomings/mideeds, need to be made a scapegoat in order to fulfil the ulterior agenda of those in positions of authority.
below is a link to the video of najam sethi’s show, or you can locate it yourself on pkpolitics.com:
http://pkpolitics.com/2010/04/19/najam-sethi-speci al-19-april-2010/
if, after viewing the video, you can see what i see, i would also ask you to consider if the supreme court is embarked on this course without general kiyani’s tacit approval. so much about the joke of his being above politics in an earlier post on this thread.
Very good analysis. Forces us to think hard about exactly what we are angry at these people for. Frankly, I think Zardari has done much better than I expected him to. Certainly I prefer him over Musharraf any day.
I have nothing to say about the result of these polls, But I would like to comment on “US” and our thinking. Those people are still the same as before, but “WE” cannot have vision to judge them. I pray that someday Pakistani’s would learn to judge their leaders and specially learn to use their VOTES in the right fashion. Amen
Kayani deserves an A+. He has completed exemplary military campaigns in SWAT, SW and now extending to NW. He has stopped major attacks on major cities. He has successfully led delegation on strategic dialogue to Wash. He has conducted army exercise in Bahawalpur. Their must be some kind of computation error in the grade awarded to Kayani. Pl check the numbers please.