Adil Najam
Back in July, we had written that “change may be brewing in Pakistani politics.” Over the last many months the themes of change and the indicators of change have been a frequent subject of discussion here. Our ATP Poll on the key events of 2006 seemed to validate the sense that 2007 may, in fact, be the year of change that many anticipate it to be; but possibly in ways that we do not anticipate.
We at ATP are a patient lot. We did not assume then, and do not assume now, that change awaits around the corner. In some ways, important change has already come. Slowly it has crept upon us and the political calculus in Pakistan today is markedly different from what it was a year ago.
The fiasco with Chief Justice Iftikhar’s removal, the flexing of the muscles by the religious extreme, the posturing by the politicos (including their relative silence at the beginning of the CJ debacle and now the macho statement from Chaudhry Shujaat) are all indicators that add to the indicators we had pointed out back in July. The result, of course, is a constant buildup of the popular fatigue and the democratic desire.
For weeks there has been (increasingly credible) chatter about a possible deal between Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) on the one hand and the Musharraf regime on the other. What that would mean for Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz or the Qaaf-League that the Chaudhries put together remains an important unknown.
For days now there has also been (more intriguing but less credible) chatter about some impending change in Gen. Musharraf’s status; within and without the Army. With the military top brass meeting right now there are rumors of the possibility that he just might be persuaded to hand over the Chief of Army Staff position to someone else but remain as President, possibly with the return of BB.
All of this is in the realm of rumors and of the most speculative variety at that. I would not wish to dignify it to be anything more than just that. However, the rumors have now become intense enough and persistent enough that one should at least keep a keen and close eye on them.
The most important new piece in the puzzle may be the abolishment of the ‘Special Operations Division’ of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was the lead player in pursuing the legal cases against Benazir Bhutto and her husband Asif Ali Zardari. Excerpts from The News story on this:
The federal government on Wednesday abolished the Special Operation Division (SOD), a subsidiary of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) which was investigating matters related to illegal foreign assets and offshore bank accounts of politicians, including Benazir Bhutto. The federal government closed down the SOD office in Lahore, and the files of the cases of illegal wealth and foreign assets of Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari were being shifted to Islamabad.
A senior officer of the management group, Hassan Waseem Afzal, who had been appointed as the head of this division, was investigating the cases of Benazir and other politicians. He had carried out investigations against Benazir and had been awarded the Tamgha-e-Imtiaz by the government of Pakistan. The division was established to probe into the illegal assets acquired by politicians in foreign countries and the ill-gotten money stashed in offshore accounts. Cases against several politicians, including Benazir Bhutto and Asif Ali Zardari, were being investigated by the Special Operation Division…
More telling than this report was a news report on GEO News where host Kamran Khan talks about this in terms of a major indicator of change. More importantly, listen carefully to the views of former information minister Shiekh Rashid on this video clip. He talks, quite candidly, about how some change is certainly coming, suggests that this is bigger than just a cooling down, and even seems to hint that this could change the political equation for everyone including Gen. Musharraf and Chaudhry Shujaat.
Of course, the current information, Senator Durrani, is saying that nobody should confuse “dheel (relief) with deal,” but then people have long since stopped taking him seriously.
So, is Benazir returning? Is Gen. Musharraf leaving?
Eventually, both things will happen one way or the other. At this point these are just rumors. But whether the rumors are correct or not, change is on its way and the essence of the game has already changed.
Rumors or just rumors. So, please treat them as such.
However, things have definitely changed since that fateful day on March 9.
1. Credibility of PM has been severely dented, which will make it more difficult for him to get re-elected by the present assemblies and retain his uniform. If he does that, no one will believe him — internally or externally.
2. The Q leaguers have begun to look more like buffoons. In fact, they always did. But they look buffoons now even to their supporters. it is still not clear, though, if PM realizes that he is surrounded by buffoons.
3. In the current situation PM needs PPP or PML more than they need him. The question for him is how to get their support and also retain his dominant position.
4. The recent events have thrown up a new “party” — the Black coats, which cannot be ignored. It is difficult to foresee what role would they play in the coming months, but they can be a formidable force. Who knows new leadership might emerge from amongst them.
5. Lastly, there is a possibility of a Bangladesh model being followed here, with a long-term civilian interim government supported by the army and the West, given the task of holding open, free and fair elections? In which case we will have to find a Mohammad Younas as a candidate!
P.S: PM has noticeably grown more gray hair at his temples since March 9.
Benazir’s return would be very good news for Pakistan… not just domestically given the PPP’s relatively liberal agenda… but because it would project Pakistan a moderate liberal and progressive republic internationally.
Given that there is hardly any difference between the policies/manifestoes of PML-N, PPP and PML Sarkari … I don’t see why we need to consider the alternatives which are worse than Benazir…
We have Imran Khan lurking in the shadows and he is a true patriot… but I suspect he is going to take another 15 or so years to mature into someone who could become the democratically elected PM of the country… provided democracy and the process is allowed to continue.
But does BB really have the control over nuclear assets ? if it was like that, why couldnt NS or BB do it earlier? i mean they have been running to US on a mere phone call in past (remember the time when NS ran to US after Kargil) so what was stopping them earlier? How powerful was Dr. AQ Khan anyways before he was investigated?
I think we should wait until Ms Benazir Bhutto herself should confirm or deny the deal. Many people are bound to be upset if she allies with a uniformed President. Anyway coming days are going to be very interesting in politics of Pakistan.
adil — of course unexpected things can happen often in pakistan — however, the formation commanders meeting is not necessarily an extraordinary meeting — i dont see why he would voluntarily give up the office of army chief and havent heard any rumours to this effect either
The return of Benazir Bhutto is not good news for Pakistan…I personally think that she is brilliant at charming the west but terrible as an administrator. She has failed miserably twice, and i do not think the third time will be any different. How can it be?
As a Pakistani woman, i would very much like to see a woman at the helm of affairs but a competent one, and i certainly dont think she qualifies as one.
Social Mistri:
You mentioned Imran Khan & Asghar Khan, ok, accepted. We talk about about revolution, we need a leader who could drive people out of their homes or atleast put some ’spirit’ for a change in their hearts. I like Imran Khan but I am not sure if he has that potential. Asghar Khan, hes in politics for the last 40 years; I’m not sure if he has made a change. About you and me, I guess we are happy what we are doing. Who are we left with?? How are Banazir & Altaf Hussain supporying themselves in a foriegn country? I feel bad beacause people in Pak. still consider them a leader and noone talks about it; how do they afford to live abroad? Nawaz Sharif, if he were a real leader, he could have come back. All we are left with is differeant faces in the army uniforms.
I very much agree to Bhitai’s analysis of the future of Pakistan politics. There are two characteristics of the State of Pakistan. (1) The first is that every country has an Army but in Pakistan Army has the country. (2) The second is that only in Pakistan the History keeps on repeating itself. Since 1947, no matter how the the man at the top came into power, he always ruled as a monarch without any consideration of the opinion of the Pakistani People.
It is naive to depend on Rumors to predict a Bright Future for Pakistanis.
“For days now there has also been (more intriguing but less credible) chatter about some impending change in Gen. Musharraf’s status; within and without the Army. With the military top brass meeting right now there are rumors of the possibility that he just might be persuaded to hand over the Chief of Army Staff position to someone else but remain as President, possibly with the return of BB.”
Let us not forget that these Military Top Brass Meetings are presided by the TOP himself. If any person thinks that the TOP is trying to topple himself is like hoping that the sun will rise at midnight.
Ahsan