Adil Najam
Much has happened in Pakistan over the last many weeks. Too much.
Amidst all the chaos and tragedy it has become difficult to keep track of just all that is happening, let alone make sense of it. It is clear that the dust has not settled yet. Far from it one can be sure that more turmoil and uncertainty is in the offing.
Yet, this we know. Gen. Musharraf sits firm in control; for now. A major national leader has been assassinated; and whether the elections are held or what might happen in them remains shrouded in doubt and speculation. The assault on the nation by extremists and terrorists have intensified. And the economy is taking a spin for the ordinary Pakistan. Despair is thick in the air and neither the military government, nor the political parties, nor the market forces seem to generate broad confidence or enthusiasm.
Adding to the despair is the fact that the two institutions of society that had begun to assert themselves and generate public support and confidence have been clipped violently. The media has been told what its “place” is and what can happen to its profits if it steps out of line. The judiciary has been revamped and the message sent out to newcomers to “learn” from the fate of their predecessors. These are classic authoritarian tactics: Increase the pressure, demonstrate the pain you can inflict, and highlight the fact that you are willing to inflict the pain if needed.
Whatever one might think of the quality of the media before the clampdown or about the individual quality and character of individual judges is irrelevant to the fact that the descent of blatant authoritarian excess cannot but be bad for the country in both the short- and the long-term. Violence has a tendency to destroy not only those upon whom violence is inflict but also those who inflict violence. The las many weeks have not only weakened the institutions of the judiciary and the press, it has also – and, maybe, more so – damaged (further) the credibility of the military as an institution and of those in government.
These much more blatant authoritarian tactics have, indeed, allowed Gen. Musharraf to maintain his hold in power. The cost, however, is that to prolong his stay in power he will now find himself compelled to be ever more blatant and obvious in the use of such tactics. Ultimately, and this we know from history in Pakistan and elsewhere, either his ability to apply ever-more stringent pressure or the people’s ability to withstand it will give way and the house of cards will implode.
In the short term, however, one of the impacts of the turmoil and despair that has resulted, especially, from Benazir Bhutto’s assassination is that some news has suddenly gone off our radars. This is not a matter of conspiracy. It is a matter of “despair overload.” But the result is striking. The sentiment for an end of authoritarianism has not extinguished, but the fledgling movement for the restoration for the judiciary and media has been silenced; or, at least, quietened. One has been hearing less and less about Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry or about Chaudhry Aitizaz Ahsan and given the fickleness of public attention and support one fears that the government might be succeeding in its attempts to have them fade away from the public imagination.
The cynics can say that this is because the supporters have themselves become silent, the support rallies have fizzled, the flowers are no longer going to the judges, and that the courts and the media are themselves now functioning again and the emergency has been lifted. All of this is true but none of this is conclusive.
It is quite clear, in fact, that Gen. Musharraf considers these two Chaudhries – Iftikhar and Aitizaz – to be the biggest threat to his power. Here is how:
Even though the exiled leaders Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto (now assassinated) have been allowed back into the country, even though the emergency has been lifted, even though the media curbs have been lifted, even though Gen. Musharraf has given up his uniform… despite all of this and more, the government is still not confident enough in their own power to release Iftikhar Chaudhry and Aitizaz Ahsan from detention. Everything else the General can manage. But these two Chaudhries are seen as having enough public support and credibility to be seen to be a threat to the General’s rule if allowed out in the open.
This is an extremely telling fact. It demonstrates who the military government thinks they can “manage” and who are considered to be “unmanageable.” The urge felt by the military government to suppress the voice of the two Chaudhries demonstrates how seriously the military government takes these two and the potential support they could muster.
It is interesting to ponder upon why the government would be more threatened by these two than by the mainstream political parties. It is not because these two are super-heroes. They are not. Both are flawed as all of us are. The threat they embody comes from the fact that, unlike the political parties, they have become spearheads (maybe reluctant spearheads) for a nascent movement whose goal is not as much to get a “share of the power” as it is to just see a real “restoration of democracy” and an “end to military rule.” Certainly Iftikhar Chaudhry did not set out to achieve this goal. He was for quite a while quite happy with how things were. Aitizaz Ahsan also did not set out to launch such a movement. But over the last half-year or more, the followers who have gathered around them have thrust this mission on them. It is a mission they now seem to embrace; or at least not shun. It is the nature of this goal that makes accommodation with them much more difficult for the government than with those who, in fact, want to be accommodated. This is exactly why it is important for the government to “control” these two much more than all others.
The unfortunate fact is that on this issue the government’s tactics may be working. Public interest is fickle. Public memory is short. And the overdose of other calamities is strong. Between all of this, the public attention is, and maybe has, been diverted elsewhere. One is reminded of the sheyr:
Reh gaya Mushtaq dil meiN rang-e-yaad-raftagaaN
Phool mehngay ho gaye, qubraiN purani ho gaeeN
Even if one does not agree with or like these two Chaudhries, it would be sad if, in fact, this is the case. The movement they embody is no longer about them. They are quite incidental to it. The movement and the moment that they came to symbolize was a movement and moment for civil society’s desire for democracy. In an environment where every institution of society was collapsing, they seemed to suggest that the democratic spirit – with its most idealistic aspirations – was still alive in Pakistan. The squashing of a judge and a lawyer is bad, but it is not catastrophic in societal terms. However, the squashing of a nation’s democratic spirit is monumental calamity. One fears that what we are seeing here is an attempt to do the latter much more than the former.
Aitzaz and Justice Chaudary are now only a limited threat to Musharaff after his successful election as President.
They have only a nuisance value in that if free they would be giving interviews to foreign press and arranging local rallys questioning Musharraf’s election from last year. At this time, Musharraf is presenting himself as the man in charge, so the two guys are held incommunicado atleast until the election is over.
The real threat to Musharraf and the Army lie in the upcoming US elections and the state of the economy.
Pakistani Army has prospered and filled up its coffers well in the last few years and has increased its grip on the Pakistani economy all for its dirty work for the “war on terror”.
This is the sweet spot spot that Pakistan’s Army loves to be in – that the Americans want something done and are willing to spend some for it.
In the sixties, the dirty work started with joining the American security arrangement for the Middle East as part of the Seato / Cento pacts and peaked with providing the refulelling bases for America’s U2 spy planes that were making sorties over the nuclear soviet union.
In the eighties, this work was to provide logistics, bases and doctrinated fighters for CIA’s war in Afghanistan.
In the new millenium, the “war on terror” is what keeps the Pakistan Army going along its missions.
A democrat president after the US election and a change in US policy towards “terror”, along with its rebalancing of monetary aid to Pakistan and its military , is the real nightmare for Musharraf and his buddy Generals.
In order to be relevent, Musharraf and buddies will try all they can to keep the threat of OBL and Co as real as they can, so that America’s support and America’s money keeps flowing.
Becuase the fact is, in the abscence of these injections of fresh cash every other decade by the Americans, Pakistan’s economy and the state of Pakistan face disintegration.
Pakistan is devoid of any stregic competitive advantages – purely in the economic sense – No Oil, not much Gas for export, major industrial / technology based industries and the quality of human capital – average at best.
Any cut in money flows from the US, directly or indirectly via the World Bank / IMF, will result in a searious breakdown in Pakistan’s economy and the Generals capacity to manouver.
This is what keeps Pakistani Generals up at night.
Hi to alls
In this event I would to say that is three main points are in Pakistan:”
#1 is power of Presedent who doing all wrong
#2 is corruption who doing everyone
#3 is no low in Pakistan
Chief Justice Mr Iftikhar ch is a right man and he doing very well in his history,so I salam to Chief Justice Iftikhar ch.
And Musharraf is wrong man because he did not want piece in Pakistan and he want his own low in courts but it is impossible every man says Musharraf is wrong and Iftikhar Ch is right. musharraf did want to came “Jamhoriat” in Pakistan. Secondly he want ending of poors culture because he said I want have to end poors.then all people,s are says “GO MUSHARRAF GO” because he didnot want success in Pakistan.
#2 Ahtizaz Ahsan is also right because he also want he is loywer of Iftikhar Ch,so he captured to Ahtizaz Ahsan.
All Pakistani are knows who is right and who is wrong
Mutazalzaluzzaman Tarar says:
“I have had enough of expectations of nothing but the highest ideals of us bloody civilians while the military junta overruns all limits required by human rights and human dignity.”
You are right dear Tarar; the nation is fed up with this monkey whose ruthless antics and manipulations with the constitution know no bounds.
But the question is how to get rid of this M without destroying ourselves.
I think the doffing of the uniform by M is a great achievement for the nation as we are now no longer in direct confrontation with the army as also the steps taken by the COS lately distancing the army from politics show. Shorn of the support of the army Mush can rely now only on his Lota and MQM support. Let us hope we can beat them both in the coming election and then revive the constitution and the judiciary by installing Aitizaz as PM and Iftikhar Choudharys the Chief Justice. Let us hope as that is the only hope in an otherwise bleak scenario of the ‘Mushed Pakistan’.
@Rafay Kashmiri,
The mention to ‘Animal Farm’ in my post was to disabuse P.M.Alvi of notions of any ‘fresh’, ‘grassroot’ force in Pakistan which would ‘spring up from the masses’. It was to highlight that eventually all ‘sincere’ people from ‘the masses’ end up like the winners (aka the ‘typical politician’) in Animal Farm and hence there is no point pursuing ideals which will continue to run against the very human drives.
However, all is not lost to us humans. We take the best we can get so long as it is -we- who decide what to get. As any American with political sense can tell you that in the 2008 race the choices were deliberately shortlisted from day one of political debates. But this blog is not about America, though parallels can be fairly drawn with Pakistan as far as the importance of political process is concerned.
Political process is inevitably always more inclusive than the rule of one man (and his corps cammanders). A political govt. can be kicked out by the opinion of people expressed through polls. A political govt. usually does not take very long to recognize that it is walking on a thin ice and that certain boundries must not be crossed.
But in case of Pakistan we have a group of people who literally got away with murder and lost of half of a country in 1971 (and managed to blame ZAB as the sole culprit!). This group of people are the true untouchables of Pakistan, the holy cows who put the fear of India in our ‘security State’ of a country.
And so, as people correctly point out, any force which can challenge their full control will be taken care of. The honorable Chowdries are a huge threat. I even fear for their lives if they manage to draw crowds like Benazir. Also, let me say, I even fear for Asif Zardari’s life if he manages to cash-in on a lot on the ‘sympathy vote’.
In the context of I and others have said above, the major source of hope we are left with is the media. Nawaz Sharif alone cannot do much against the establishment (and could well make a real compromise, instead of BB’s deceptive ‘deal’), the judges are sacked, the PPP has thousands of workers under threat of arrest for their alleged role in post Dec. 27 violence.
Daktar sahib, what can I say – I’m just not as big a person as you. I want justice and revenge. You will have to forgive me if I choose to not live by all the highest idealistic rules, etc especially as the other side ignores all rules and manners of civilized behavior. It is unfair to expect angelic behavior of a few (us bloody civilians, lawyers, etc) while letting others (generals) behave like the treacherous dogs that they are.
I stand by everything I stand. I still long for the day when these generals and their families will be put under indefinite house arrest, when the water to their house will be cut off, when their children will be denied education, when their families will be denied medical care. I long for the day when these treacherous generals will be hanged. I have nothing but hatred for this army of uniformed politicians and its generals. And I do not apologize for my wishes or my hatred. I have had enough of expectations of nothing but the highest ideals of us bloody civilians while the military junta overruns all limits required by human rights and human dignity.