Adil Najam
One of the most important decision in Pakistan’s political history was made yesterday when Gen. Pervez Musharraf was made to resign from the Presidency. Equally, and possibly more, important decisions are being made right now by the political leadership of the ruling coalition. It is these decisions being made now that will ultimately effect not only the immediate but the long-term future of the country and which will, in many ways, determine the real significance of the decision made yesterday.
As the political leadership of the country continues its deliberations four questions in particular seem critical. The answers they come up will will impact what happens to Pakistan politics as well as what happens to Pakistan’s political leadership itself.
On each of the following four key decision points, what do you think will happen? What do you think should happen?
Question #1. Who will replace Gen. Pervez Musharraf as President of Pakistan?
The names being thrown around, some I think less seriously than others, include those of Afsaryab Khattak, Afsandyar Wali Khan, Fazlur Rahman, Dr Fehmida Mirza, Aftab Shaaban Mirani, Faryal Talpur, Attaullah Mengal, Saeeduz Zaman Siddiqui, Mehmood Achakzai, Aitizaz Ahsan, Rana Bhagwandas, Fakharuddin Ibrahim, and many others. As important as the choice of the President is the signal it will send about whether the nature and powers of the President will also be cut down or not. What do you think will happen? What do you think should happen?
Question #2. Will Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and his fellow judges be restored? And when?
The really important question here is the “when”. PML(N) wants the judges to be restored immediately. If they are not, what signal will this send to the PML(N) and the country about their role and power within the ruling coalition? What, really, are the pros and cons of an early restoration, and for whom? The one question that may be even more important than the “when” question here, is the “under what conditions” question. That is the question one hears less about but will may ultimately determine what comes, or does not come, out of the judges moevement. What do you think will happen? What do you think should happen?
Question #3. What is the future of the ruling coalition itself?
The ruling coalition was really constructed as a coalition against Gen. Musharraf. Its primary purpose was to remove Gen. Musharraf from office. It has been spectacularly successful in doing that. What now? Will it survive? In what form? Should it survive at all? Will it be more healthy if PML(N) now becomes a parliamentary opposition which, in a functioning democracy, is as important as a government? What do you think will happen? What do you think should happen?
Question #4. What about the survival issues of the Pakistani awam: Bijli, Paani, Nokri, Naan?
Ultimately, this is the most important question of all. Till now, with a visibly divided government, the political parties could ward of part of the economic woes faced by ordinary Pakistanis to Gen. Musharraf and his past policies. Now, they will have to – and quickly – demonstrate that they can and will do something about these major crises. It is not clear what they plan to, or even can, do. But if they don’t their popularity will be seriously imperiled. What do you think will happen? What do you think should happen?
Posting again since my post got corrupted.
People like you are the problem in Pakistan. Judging people is what Pakistani’s do 24/7 !!!!!
I am a Pakistani 100% more than you and I dont need to prove it to you or anyone else. Musharaf was a true Pakistani after Quaid-e-Azam and Ayub. He doesn’t need to prove his love and there is no Gauge. One’s action is enough and he proved it to me that he a was true Pakistani muhibe watan.
But judgemental people like you is what is destroying Pakistan.
Musharaf lovers hate Pakistan???
I dont know what the hell you mean by all that ..are you a Pakistani???? Well does it hurt when I say that???? SO stop judging then if you can take that heat!!!
I can make a cheap ill informed comment also about you that all Musharaf haters are anti-Pakistani’s
The time is not hear for labelling people like Bush does calling one Patriotic American and ones who oppose him Anti-Americans!!!
My Own Country is Pakistan you Judgemental person the problems of Pakistan is my problem and that is why i am upset. Why dont you do Bhangra and dance and eat mithai because I am judging by your responses that you are not Pakistani and are a Bhutto( who sold pakistan) lover!!!
All this language I am using is to make you realize is that this kinda of name calling will lead us no where.
Sorry If I offended you but you left me no choice and after Musharaf resignation I am still grumpy.
Sub se pehle Pakistan and Pakistan Paindabad.
From a true Pakistani ;)
I support what lida said. The current coalition govt is clueless about the real issues facing the nation: poverty, bijli, law and order, terrorism,social problems. That has been evident since the last six months of this coalition govt tenure.
The politicians simply told the public: Musharraf is trouble and with Musharraf gone, trouble will be gone too. The public bought that fraud.
I think Faryal Talpur or Zardari will be the next President.
It is difficult to say what will happen, but every one has an opinion on what should happen — or what would they like to see happen:
In my view, restoration of judiciary should be next. Then, a longer term goal, if an elected parliament, independent judiciary, free media and vibrant civil society can finally come together and make the military subservient to civilian government like in every other liberal, secular, plural and constitutional democracy.
This is not going to be a straight-line journey. It will be tortuous. But I think Pakistan has taken the first step.
1. Who will replace Mush?
Hard to say, but Asfandyar or Sardar Mangel could be good choices. If not someone like them, then justice Wajihuddin.
On presidential powers: we have had 58-2b and it was badly abused. We have seen two elected govts without 58-2b (ZAB and NS’s heavy mandate) and it got really ugly and scary. So I don’t know what the answer is. But we certainly need a proper debate on this question, which is probably not likely to take place since everyone is so obsessed about parliamentary supremacy and doing away with 58-2b without wanting to think it through.
I think you (ATP) should modify your question about presidential powers by first asking people to list down at least 2 arguments in favour of 58-2b and 2 arguments against it and then state some conclusion if they have one.
2. The judiciary: it should be restored immediately and unconditionally. Don’t expect Zardari to do it though. He will either not restore them, and even if he does, he will make sure that they are not able to exercise any checks on the excesses of the government. While NS has maintained a better stance, he too will probably try to riggle out of it some how.
If the judiciary does not get restored in a way that it is able to exercises checks and balances on the govt, it will be a huge set back, and it will take a long time to recover from it.
Those who have been opposing Iftikhar Chaudhry out of their support for Mush should now ask themselves whether they like the prospect of Zardari and NS in control without an independent judiciary to keep a check on them.
3. Future of the ruling coellission:
Probably not going to survive for too long. However, that should not be seen as a set back for democracy as long as the break up results in fresh elections instead of a military coup.
4. Daily life problems faced by Pakistanis:
The ruling coellission has done little homework on these problems, and the majority of voices opposing Mush were too busy going after him to demand that the opposition should come prepared with a proper plan for addressing these issues. Nor did they get elected on the basis of their ability to solve these problems or the lack of it. This government is likely to struggle. It is neither prepared nor has any seriousness about governance. However, the solution is not another military coup, but an effort by the media and civil society to work for an issue based national discourse.
Things like inflation, rule of law etc need to be discussed at length in an easy to understand way so that most Pakistanis are in a position to form some opinions on how these issues can be tackled. By the time this govt finishes its term or breaks up, we should be ready to have elections faught on the basis of manifestos instead of ppersonality centered slogans. The Feb 18 elections were contested mainly on the basis of who opposes Mush and the Bhutto slogan. These elections and the way the previous govt was peacefully overthrown is in itself an important step. But we need to aim higher next time and try to make the next elections more manifesto oriented.
A n answer to the three questions:
1. I have no idea who shall replace Musharraf. But as long as it’s not AAZ and NS, I think both sides shall be placated. NS was right when he said someone from the minority province should be made President. Wali Khan sounds good to me.
2. I highly doubt they shall be restored. Once a snake, always a snake and AAZ has a forked tongue. And even if they are, it was rightly said that there shall be “conditions”.
3. So I guess Clinton was right when he said, “It’s the economy, stupid”. Once we can get our economy back on track, people shall feel better. But that in itself is a garangatuan task.