Adil Najam and Owais Mughal
(Also see our second Year in Review Poll on “Predictions for 2009.” Image from Flickr by Mirjee.)
We had ended the year 2007 at ATP by calling it the “Year of Angst and Anger.” We had begun the year 2008 with a wishlist of seven prayers: Prayers for Human Dignity, for Living Livelihoods and Wellbeing, for Peace, for Tolerance, for Justice, for Democracy and for Jurat-i-Tehkik.
The year 2008 has been as angry and as angst-ridden as its predecesssor. Our prayers for 2009 remain the same, even more so. There is little one can add there.
Since past is prologue to the present, we wish to look beyond both past and present, into the future. Just as the demons of 2007 continued to haunt us in 2008, the events of 2008 will define Pakistan’s 2009 – for good or for bad. But which of the many – too many – momentous events of 2008 will have the greatest impact on defining what happens in Pakistan in 2009? That is the question for this ATP Poll, the first of two New Year’s Polls (the second one will follow soon).
We have selected ten key events of 2008 for you to choose from. But since some are related and the list is long, you can vote for multiple choices (we would recommend and suggest that you vote for around three only). The choices include:
- The political rise of Asif Ali Zardari at the helm of the PPP and as President.
- The resignation of Gen. Pervez Musharraf as President and his departure from the political scene.
- Pakistan’s lingering judicial crisis and its impacts on the judiciary as an institution.
- Rising political and military tensions with India following the Mumbai blasts.
- The international impacts of the global financial and economic crisis.
- Pakistan’s own economic, energy and food crises (in addition or separately from to the global economic crisis).
- Continuing acts of terrorism, civil violence and militancy all over Pakistan.
- Military action in Pakistan’s Northern areas by the government of Pakistan.
- The rise of Talibanization, extremism and deep social divisions in society.
- Barack Obama’s victory as US President and the likely changes it will bring to US policy on Pakistan, including on the global war on terror (GWOT).
Through your vote in this ATP Poll and through your comments, do plesae help us understand the implications of what has happened this year, and chart the contours of that which might happen next year.
(Also see our second Year in Review Poll on “Predictions for 2009“. Image from Flickr by Mirjee.)
My own sense is that Zardari will not last the year.
The terrorism and extremism and Talibanism will. And that will continue to be the country’s biggest challenge of all.
This is a comprehensive list of factors that directly or indirectly will affect Pakistan in 2009. It is difficult to assess the quantum of their impact. Besides these I think apparent political and government inaction (or lack of it) to tackle these issues will greatly affect the next year for Pakistan.
May I recommend a correction in the list; it is not ‘Northern Areas’ where there is military action. It is ongoing in our tribal areas and Swat [NW and N of NWFP]. Northern areas are mainly Gilgit Hunza etc. [The Northern Areas of Pakistan, defined in general terms, cover the districts of Gilgit, Diamer, Ghizer, Ghanche and Skardu – from WWF website.]
Very interesting that no one thinks that the global financial crisis will have much of an impact. I guess this shows how cut off from the world economy we have become.
I think the relationship with the US will change dramatically in 2009
Once again US has shown that it cannot be trusted
I think that clearly Pakistan’s 2009 will be defined by the rise of extremism in general and of terrorism in particular. There is little that either Zardari or Obama will be able to do about it.
The economic, energy and food issues you mention will hurt the poor Pakistani but in general the real challenge in 2009 will again be about extremism and terrorism.