Adil Najam
Much has been happening on the India-Pakistan scene. Much of it is good. But, given that this is India and Pakistan, ominous clouds of distrust are never very far away.
With the SAARC Summit gathering steam in Thimphu, Bhutan, there is much talk of a serious meeting and possibly some joint communique from Prime Ministers Yousuf Raza Gillani and Manmohan Singh. But with typical South Asian theatrics, doubts still linger on whether such a meeting will be held and whether something will come of it. A recently more confident Pakistani Foreign Minister is calling on India to move on from 26/11 to start forging better relations with Pakistan. And Indian opinion, jilted by the news of an Indian diplomat who was reportedly “spying” for Pakistan, is also in danger of being turned away from whatever good vibes have been created by the recent warming in the relations between the two neighbors and civil society initiatives such as Amn Ki Aasha, or glitterati gossip of the Shoaib Malik-Sania Mirza wedding, etc.
Much more importantly, perhaps, we have again been reminded by former Pakistani Foreign Minister Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri just how close the two countries were just a little while ago on a real and meaningful agreement on long-standing disputes, including on issues related to water management, to Kashmir, to economic cooperation, etc.
My colleague Moeed Yusuf and I recently published a research paper in the academic journal Third World Quarterly that looks at the history of the Kashmir issue between the Pakistan and India and undertook a detailed content analysis of every proposal made for its resolution in these 60+ years. In short, the analysis suggests that “the dispute may be more ‘ripe’ for resolution today than it has ever been in the past.”
As I have argued elsewhere, this does not mean that the dispute is ready to be resolved. It does mean that there is a opportunity today to improve these relations that must not be missed. But unless the leadership of the two countries really start talking, it will be missed. And that has been by central argument about India-Pakistan relations for many years now. As I said recently at a discussion organized by the Asia Society in New York (with me and Indian defense analyst Raja Mohan as the featured speakers), the simple fact is that “Not talking is never a good way to start talking.” Here is a video of my detailed argument and the ensuing discussion with Raja Mohan (my formal presentation starts around minute 14):
So, my plea for Thimphu and beyond Thimphu remains the same that it was before Thimphu. Please talk, Dear Prime Ministers. And please keep talking.
I think the best point you make in your excellent presentation in the video is that the process is now taken over by people in the society and that momentum can just not be stopped. Its no more up to the governments.
The arguments are really strong but as usman quoted in his comment that there are already other problems in the country so who would either Pakistan or India bother to look at these issues just pending from decades. These issues need a very serious dialogue involving some third party, and this has been done many times. But everytime the dialogue fails or is less successful, So they have now got tired of all that and show least interest.
I think the arguments you make in the video are very very strong. But I am not sure how serious India is, or even Pakistan is, about talking at this point. They both have enough problems at home.
Mirza-Malik Marriage is just a scene from the Drama “Aman Ki Aasha”(Neya Tamasha)- Funded by the government of India. Infact india is trying to cross the borders and defeat Pakistan with its “Meethi Churis”. A girl like Sania, who never accepted Pakistan from her heart, can never be a good “Bahu” for us. She says that she is interested in Shoaib since 2004….. I remember the news about Sania-Akshay scandal are just 2 or 3 years earlier.
Brilliant, Sir.
Excellent presentation. The graphics but also the content. WOW and right on point. Shabaash.