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Making Sense of 2010. Thinking of 2011.

Posted on December 30, 2010
Filed Under >Adil Najam, Economy & Development, Law & Justice, Politics, Society
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Adil Najam

Another momentous year, in what has been a momentous decade for Pakistan, comes to an end. Indeed, more than momentous, both the year and the decade were tumultuous. Whatever they were I wish the year, and the decade, had been just a little less so.

If I have a wish for 2011 it is that it be everything that 2010 was not.

That it be un-noteworthy. That it be politically boring. That it be uninteresting. That it is unremarkable. That it be unexciting. That it be undramatic. That it is not spent on the very edge of the edge. And, above all, that it be calm. A year when at least for a few moments Pakistanis can just sit back and relax – take a deep breath to calm their nerves – without having to worry about how everything might turn upside down the very next moment. A year that we can all go about our lives without forever hanging on the brink, and that too by a thread. A year when the world thinks little about us, and we think about the world even less. Now, is that too much to ask for?

In past years we have had ATP Polls on predictions for the following year (predictions for 2010, predictions for 2009) but the results have been far from stellar: In 2008, 41% of our readers thought that the PPP government would not survive the year and in 2009, 53% thought that Mr. Zardari would not be the President at the end of 2010. So, rather than set a menu of propositions for you to choose from, this year we would like you to make your predictions for 2011 and maybe we can revisit them in a years time – or even earlier!

What is your wish for 2011? And what is your prediction?

To get the ball rolling, let me throw out a few propositions. Please do add to them.

Proposition #1. Pakistan will remain a divided society. It was a divided society every day of 2010 and will remain so in 2011. The most recent and poignant manifestation of these divisions were in the debates over the blasphemy laws and the Asiya Bibi case at the end of 2010 – debates that  straddle into 2011 – but the divisions are larger and deeper than this case and have been strewn all over ATP ever since it began. 2011 will not be different. But what is already different, and what I hope will be different as time goes on, is that buried angst about these divisions is now being converted into open – although sometimes violent – debate. I believe that the debate will indeed become more honest in 2011. I hope it will not become violent. I do not think it will be resolved in 2011. So, fasten your seatbelts, this one is going to be a long one.

Proposition #2. The government will remain unstable, but will not be dislodged. The big news right now is about the government coalition falling apart. I do not think it will. I hope it will not. Elected governments in Pakistan are always unstable and there are too many who want to make them so. Our politicians themselves do not help. But nor does the embedded impatience of the Pakistani public. Like an unending soap opera, the topi-drama of Pakistan politics keeps going on with all its characters – politicians, bureaucrats civil and military, the omni-present ‘agencies’, and, yes, all of the rest of us too – perched on edge and forever attempting to dislodge everyone else from that edge. All of that will continue. I hope the government will concentrate of real issues – particularly those related to economic development, energy, prices, and unemployment – but I also hope that it will see the end of its term and that whatever change will come, whenever, will come with a general election. That is my hope. That is my prediction.

Proposition #3. The US-Pakistan relationship will remain dysfunctional. The Kerry-Lugar Bill, the WikiLeaks revealations and the demise of Richard Holbrooke may have been the big news of the year in terms of US-Pakistan relations, but the real news remains that this is one amazingly dysfunctional partnership. That is not about to change. When no Pakistani seems to trust any Pakistani institution, or any other Pakistani for that matter, it is difficult to convince Americans why they should. But nor is it easy for any Pakistani to see any reason to trust America: friends who routinely send drones to bomb into friend’s territories are no friends at all. The trust deficit remains the real issue and neither Pakistan nor the US seems either capable or interested in bridging it right now. Without that happening first, no amount of halwa-puri diplomacy will change anything.

Proposition #4. Internal terrorism will remain Pakistan’s biggest enemy. 2010 was another bloody year. There is no sorcery in predicting that there will be much bloodshed in 2011 too. What became evident and largely understood all across Pakistan in 2010 was that terrorism is a grave, and possibly the gravest, threat to Pakistan. That realization is important in society. Internal terrorism is Pakistan’s biggest enemy and has to be seen and confronted as such. There are too many who would wish to muddle the understanding of this threat. Those within by arguing that these incidents are related to what is happening internationally and until that changes these will not. Those outside Pakistan by arguing that these are merely collateral to what is happening internationally. Both arguments have merit, but only partially. The internal terrorism has to be tackled with concerted and strategic police action – improving the international aspects will certainly help, but cannot be a precondition to police action against internal terrorism. I do not think these incidents will stop in 2011, but I do hope that we will begin better policing them, catching and making examples of culprits, and stories of ‘successful’ attacks will be outnumbered by stories of ‘attacks pre-empted’ and of terrorists apprehended.

Proposition #5. Pakistan cricket will remain mercurial. There is never a dull moment with the current Pakistan team. I hope the scandals will be left behind in 2011, but I do not think the mercurialness of Pakistan cricket will. I am not sure if I want it to. There will, unfortunately, be plenty of disappointments. I just hope there will also be a few moments of absolute glory and heady achievements. In this, the year of the Cricket World Cup, I can only hope that the flash of glory will come at the right time and the right place. Hey, we can always hope, can’t we!

So, there is my rather sundry list, in no particular order and rather random. Do tell us what you think. What are your hopes for 2011? What are your predictions.

18 Comments on “Making Sense of 2010. Thinking of 2011.”

  1. HarOON says:
    December 30th, 2010 7:01 pm

    I agree with most of your propositions, except the first. I think that either Zardari or Gillani will go this year. At the end of the year one of the two will have been replaced.

  2. USMAN says:
    December 30th, 2010 7:02 pm

    The list is rather sad, but probably correct. I know this blog follows a very strict policy of talking only about Pakistan. But what about Afghanistan and the impact of what happens there on Pakistan. I think that could be huge.

  3. Durrani says:
    December 30th, 2010 8:44 pm

    Here are my predictions for 2011:

    1. Zardari govt will fall in early 2011. But no martial law.
    2. Pakistan will not even make it to cricket World Cup quarter finals round.
    3. Economy will start doing better by mid-year after good crop.
    4. Energy situation will become better after mid-year.
    5. Baluchistan military operation.

  4. jawed says:
    December 31st, 2010 12:55 am

    My wish for 2011: May it mark the return of peace to Pakistan and may it see the end of the Taliban curse as well as of drone attacks.

  5. Nadeem Ahsan says:
    December 31st, 2010 3:48 am

    Predictions in no particular order

    North Waziristan operation may begin if Pentagon releases next tranche of CSF. Kayani is asking for it and may get it. That money may even go into budget for 2011/J17/F16/New Nukes

    Zardari and Gilani will indeed survive. Adil is right.

    MQM will make noises, but will not withdraw support because alternate looks bleak for them. PML-N hates them.

    Sadly, Drone strikes will increase in 2011.

    EU trade concessions will not make much of an impact.

    Pakistan according to Shahid Javed Burkhi saab is the sick man of South Asia. Sadly, that moniker may stick to Pakistan for all of 2011

    IMF will insist on more conditionality’s on future loans.

    Pakistan will have new Fin Min in 2011

    Terror attacks by Pakistan based groups against India and other western countries are possible. Depends on AfPak situation and funding for these groups. Will they have enough venture money?

  6. Fakhar says:
    December 31st, 2010 5:06 am

    We Should ban the personal Ownereship of assets by all the Beaurucrates, Politicians, Army Officers, Police Officers and The Judges. The existing holding should be confiscated by the government. A precondition should be introduced for joining these positions that all the assets must be surrendered to the Government. Only those people will be Honest and Loyal to the country.

    We should propagate this thought in 2011 and we will be the best amongst the Comity of Nations.

  7. Ayesha says:
    December 31st, 2010 10:16 am

    My wish list is:

    1. govt completes is term and then booted out in elections so that habit of elections sets in
    2. Pakistan surprises itself with cricket world cup win
    3. Zardari changes his adviers specially Hussain Haqqani and Babar Ghauri (Rahman Malik is annoying but he actually does his job well)
    4. Loadshedding ends
    5. Better budget controls by govt

  8. Salman says:
    December 31st, 2010 11:12 am

    Thanks for spreading more desperation

  9. Daktar says:
    December 31st, 2010 11:13 am

    I think the economy will improve in 2011. Here is why:

    1. Kerry Lugar money will actually start coming in.
    2. Eventually IMF will release lock on Pakistan.
    3. After the floods the reconstruction will show as GNP improvement.
    4. Post flood agriculture gains because of better water and soil for crops will hit.
    5. We actually have a good economic team in place right now.

    The implication of this is that by the time the elections come the economy will be doing better and maybe load-shedding will be gone also and this government will have real good chance to re-winnning elections.

    Scary, but could happen.

  10. Humaira says:
    December 31st, 2010 11:16 am

    I share your prayer, Dr. Najam: “If I have a wish for 2011 it is that it be everything that 2010 was not.”
    Except for cricket where I wish our last game of 2010 was indicator of where 2011 will go!

  11. December 31st, 2010 1:11 pm

    Some comments from the ATP Facebook Page:

    - “Mauj Barhay Ya Aandhi Aaye,
    Diya Jalaye Rakhna Hai..
    Ghar Ki Khatir Sau Dukh Jhelain,
    Ghar To Aakhir Apna Hai..!!”
    - “At least pak end the year with good stats in T20 game against NZ. Enjoys guys & happy New Year to all of you and may your god go with you.”

  12. Samdani says:
    December 31st, 2010 2:14 pm

    This time you have been a little depressing. Things are bad, yes, but there is always a silvery lining. For me the most important thing is that people, like yourself and so many others, are now speaking up. Maybe we are finally listening up to Faiz Ahmed Faiz’s and his plea to “BOL”.

  13. Tamashbeen says:
    December 31st, 2010 4:38 pm

    A punjabi poem. Poet unknown.

    Kikli kaleer dee
    Pant meray veer dee,
    Shirt bha Bashir dee,
    Tay tie chaachay Naseer dee,
    Coat vadday Bhai da,
    Landay toun leyaai da,
    Fit shit karaa kay,
    Dhobi toun dhowaayi da,
    Scent shent laayi da,
    Shauq naal paayi da,
    Bus 200 rupayye vich
    Babu ban jaayi da,
    Fittay moonh mehngaai da,
    Tay Bhutto day jawaai da…

  14. Huma Shah says:
    January 1st, 2011 3:42 am

    A very unhopeful article as far as predictions go! However this is my take:
    1. the govt will stay…limp along, falter, but not fall…otherwise thats bad for Pakistan.
    2. Pakistan has been divided since long and i dont foresee any change in that, but it wud be nicer if these divisions aren’t physically/brutally played out on the street and without respect for life.
    3. Enough said about the Pak/US relationship.
    4. It wud be great if the Chinese relationship is given more respect and “place” in the Pakistani governmental/bureaucratic set up and the infrastructure/economy gets a boost as a result.
    5. At least SOME big-wigs get jail time and their assets confiscated (but i dont see the army-types getting theirs :s)
    6. We sensationally horrify the world and win the world cup in grand style.
    7. Aamir and Asif make it back to International cricket! (o_O)
    8. No or maybe minimal terrorist attacks (i wish! hope! pray!)

    A chinese proverb (or is it Confucious?) says “May you live in interesting times” … I hope not.. We’ve been a source of too much “interesting times” now and need to be excruciatingly boring.

  15. Call Pakistan says:
    January 1st, 2011 10:00 am

    Sad but this is how its likely to be :(

  16. Gifts Pakistan says:
    January 2nd, 2011 5:23 pm

    Since 1998, I have seen that every next was worst then the previous year. May ALLAH be merciful upon Pakistan in the coming years.

  17. HarOON says:
    January 2nd, 2011 7:12 pm

    Actually, this was an interesting year in sports. The cricket scandals were disturbing but in smaller sports at Commonwealth and Asian games Paksiatni athletes, including women did well.

  18. March 14th, 2011 1:07 am

    very good post

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