Adil Najam
Its time to take stock of the year 2006. Its also time for another ATP Poll.
We did think of doing something around a ‘Person of the Year’ theme and I even thought of a few possible candidates (here, here and here). But that seemed too obvious, and more likely to turn into a popularity contest rather than a thought-provoking discussion.
Instead, we want to focus on the following question:
WHICH EVENTS AND TRENDS FROM 2006 ARE MOST LIKELY TO LEAVE A LASTING IMPACT ON PAKISTAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY?
Our desire is to have the focus not just on what has happened in 2006, but in the implication of what happened in 2006 on the FUTURE of Pakistan. The emphasis is clearly on the future, and we hope to have a good discussion on why, which trend will impact the future of Pakistan, how.
(An explanation of what we mean by each choice is given below; because of a cache plug-in your vote may not appear in the results immediately.)
Unlike previous ATP Polls (on women rights, Gen. Musharraf’s future, past leaders, and Gen. Musharraf’s performance), the challenge here is not in phrasing the question but in figuring out possible options for the answer. Since we do not have the technological ability to allow readers to add their own options, we have narrowed down the list to the following ten key events and event-related trends. We are sure other things that could have been added to this, but without wanting to make this too long, too unwieldy or too broad, we have decided upon the following possible events and trends as answer choices. (Some of are very directly related to a specific event but signifying broader underlying trends; others are broader trends that relate to a collectivity of multiple smaller events.)
Movement on Pakistan-India relations (also here and here), especially including recent moves by Pakistan on Kashmir and related improvements in Pakistan-India relations.
Hiccups in Pakistan-USA relations (also here), including Pres. Bush’s visit to India and Pakistan and Gen. Musharraf’s visit to USA.
Frictions in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, including the re-rise of Taliban.
The killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti (also here) and the continuing unrest and volatility in Balochistan.
Signs of an impending break-up of the Mutihadda Majlis-i-Amal (MMA), including over the resignation issue.
Positive economic trends, including rise of foreign investments in Pakistan (including for high visibility projects like the Centaurus), strength in some service sectors like telecommunication and banking, etc.
Negative economic trends, including rise in cost of living, inflationary pressures, stock-market controversies, etc.
Continuation of sectarianism and sectarian violence, including various attacks during first part of the year.
The passage of the Womens’ Rights Bill (also, here and here) and related events signifying a change in role of women in society (here, here and here).
Changes being brought into education curriculum and other educational reform, including how other communities and religions are portrayed within historical and other texts.
If you do want to influence the results, please, by all means ask your friends to also vote. Feel welcome to use the ‘Email’ button at the very top to send to your friends.
Voting is anonymous; as it should be. This is, of course, not be a very scientific poll, but it will at least give us a sense of what this community � the ATP cohort � thinks. Do vote, but please vote only once (even if you are smart enough to beat the system somehow).
Adil: I voted for Hicuups in USA-Pak. relation but honestly, when I read your posting, the automatic thinking I had was that how can ANYTHING ever change anything in Pakistan? Pakisrtan has seen so much, marshallaws, surrender of her Army in 71, breakup of her half part, jokers sitting in assembalies, misuse of the name of the religion etc etc. Lets ask this question to ourselves: did anything ever change anything?No. People have same attitudes, law is a joke, inflation is higher, constitution is a joke, corruption is a norm; education, health, freedom, even pure drinking water are the last priorities; I can go on and on. So answering your question honestly, no incident in 2006 will have any impact on the future. Analyze the data of the last 60 years and you guys will agree with me.
I voted for ‘Kashmir initiative..’ one. Looks like 2007 will see some kind of compromise between Pakistan and India. This alone can have far-reaching impact on virtually all other issues: Democracy, military power, Baluchistan violence, economy, Talibans in FATA….
May be it is my wishful thinking that 2007 will see some compromise but events/offers/proposals certainly point to the new stage in India-Pakistan relationships where going back to increased hostilities will not look like an appealing option to the Establishment in both countries.
With we being so dependent on US, the major impacts would come from FUTURE hiccups in US-Pakistan relations and the US backed War on Terror in Afghanistan.
It was US who pushed Mushi to get the Women’s bill approved who otherwise is on record for saying that women claim that they have been raped to get foreign nationality or in case of Dr. Shazia stating that the accused captain did not do it even before the commencement of trial (did he get a revelation?). Such a person can never be champion of women’s rights and to any one who believes otherwise, well, what can I say.
Secondly, the education reforms are not our own undertaking. As always, it was again a US backed initiative where major focus is on modifying Islamiat textbooks which is clear from Condi Rice’s statements. By the way, DAWN has written extensively on the failure of “parha likha Punjab” policy of the government.
Since all this time when we have been flooded with US money and have been its most “allied ally”, we were not able to establish a significant manufacturing or technological enterprise (rise in price of real estate, stock market, or increase in consumer finance to sustain comfortable lifestyle is no barometer of economic development). Harping on positive can also have a backlash like the Shining India campaign on BJP and we are nowhere near the economic achievements of India.
Musharraf and MMA made for strange bedfellows as both needed each other. MMA was supposed to break up from day 1. It has been remarkable achievement on behalf of Mullah’s that they kept their alliance for so long. Its more than any other secular party could achieve. Anyway, elections are due next year so don’t expect much impact from it either way.
Bugti killing, negative economic trends, waziristan issue and sectarian violence if not handled properly can have a long lasting impact.
This was my $0.02.
The deepest and long lasting changes will probably come from the Women’s Protection Bill. It is far from complete or fully satisfactory, but a first and important step.
If the curriculum reform takes root, that will also have long term impacts, but it is too early to say right now.
I think you list is a fairly good one. Not sure if I can add anything to it. Maybe the Charter of Democracy, but that went nowhere. However, am surprised that a possible MMA breakup (which will probably happen) is on the list. If it happens, not sure how it could have any real impact on the future of Pakistan.